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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170305
	Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date
	He, Yong; Xiong, Wei; Hu, Pengcheng; Huang, Daiqing; Feurtado, J. Allan; Zhang, Tianyi; Hao, Chenyang; DePauw, Ron; Zheng, Bangyou; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Dixonj, Laura E.; Wang, Hong; Challinor, Andrew Juan
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
起始页码	917
卷号	917
英文摘要	projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi -locus genotype -based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheatflowering -dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat -flowering -dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat -flowering -date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination of Vrn and Ppd genes, rather than individual Vrn or Ppd genes, plays a critical role in wheatflowering -date stability. Our results suggest that the combination of Ppd-D1a with winter genotypes carrying the vrn-D1 allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.
英文关键词	Wheat flowering date stability; Crop modeling; Vernalization; Photoperiod; Climate change
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001174668100001
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289216
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Institute of Environment & Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS; CGIAR; International Maize & Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT); Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Agriculture & Food; University of Queensland; National Research Council Canada; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Institute of Crop Sciences, CAAS; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); State University System of Florida; University of Florida; University of Leeds; University of Leeds
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He, Yong,Xiong, Wei,Hu, Pengcheng,et al. Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date[J],2024,917.
APA	He, Yong.,Xiong, Wei.,Hu, Pengcheng.,Huang, Daiqing.,Feurtado, J. Allan.,...&Challinor, Andrew Juan.(2024).Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,917.
MLA	He, Yong,et al."Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 917(2024).