气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainties in the Projection of Dynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 and FGOALS-g3 Large Ensemble

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0272.1
	Uncertainties in the Projection of Dynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 and FGOALS-g3 Large Ensemble
	Jin, Chenyang; Liu, Hailong; Lin, Pengfei; Li, Yiwen
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	37
结束页码	6
卷号	37 期号:6
英文摘要	Decision -makers need reliable projections of future sea level change for risk assessment. Untangling the sources of uncertainty in sea level projections will help narrow the projection uncertainty. Here, we separate and quantify the contributions of internal variability, intermodel uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty to the ensemble spread of dynamic sea level (DSL) at both the basin and regional scales using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and FGOALS-g3 large ensemble (LEN) data. For basin -mean DSL projections, intermodel uncertainty is the dominant contributor (.55%) in the near term (2021-40), midterm (2041-60), and long term (2081-2100) relative to the climatology of 1995-2014. Internal variability is of secondary importance in the near- and midterm until scenario uncertainty exceeds it in all basins except the Indian Ocean in the long term. For regional -scale DSL projections, internal variability is the dominant contributor (60%-100%) in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and western boundary of the Atlantic Ocean, while intermodel uncertainty is more important in other regions in the near term. The contribution of internal variability (intermodel uncertainty) decreases (increases) in most regions from midterm to long term. Scenario uncertainty becomes important after emerging in the Southern, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) maps for regional DSL projections show that anthropogenic DSL signals can only emerge from a few regions. Assuming that model differences are eliminated, the perfect CMIP6 ensemble can capture more anthropogenic regional DSL signals in advance. These findings will help establish future constraints on DSL projections and further improve the next generation of climate models.
英文关键词	Sea level; Uncertainty; Climate change; Climate models
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001170283200001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/289152
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Laoshan Laboratory; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; China University of Geosciences
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jin, Chenyang,Liu, Hailong,Lin, Pengfei,et al. Uncertainties in the Projection of Dynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 and FGOALS-g3 Large Ensemble[J],2024,37(6).
APA	Jin, Chenyang,Liu, Hailong,Lin, Pengfei,&Li, Yiwen.(2024).Uncertainties in the Projection of Dynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 and FGOALS-g3 Large Ensemble.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(6).
MLA	Jin, Chenyang,et al."Uncertainties in the Projection of Dynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 and FGOALS-g3 Large Ensemble".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.6(2024).