气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China

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DOI	10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105119
	Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China
	Zhu, Qiongyu; Zhou, Maigeng; Sakhvidi, Mohammad Javad Zare; Yang, Siru; Chen, Sujuan; Feng, Puyu; Chen, Zhaoyue; Xu, Zhiwei; Liu, Qiyong; Yang, Jun
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2352-3964
起始页码	103
卷号	103
英文摘要	Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and temperature variability. This study aimed to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change contributes to future heat-related CVD burdens. Methods Daily data on CVD mortality and temperature were collected in 161 Chinese communities from 2007 to 2013. The association between heat and CVD mortality was established using a two-stage time-series design. Under the natural forcing, human-induced, and combined scenarios, we then separately projected excess cause-/age-/region-/educationspeci fi c mortality from future high temperature in 2010 - 2100, assuming no adaptation and population changes. Findings Under shared socioeconomic pathway with natural forcing scenario (SSP2 - 4.5 - nat), heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths decreased slightly from 3.3% [95% empirical con fi dence interval (eCI): 0.3, 5.8] in the 2010s to 2.8% (95% eCI: 0.1, 5.2) in the 2090s, with relative change of - 0.4% (95% eCI: - 0.8, 0.0). However, for combined natural and human-induced forcings, this estimate would surge to 8.9% (95% eCI: 1.5, 15.7), 14.4% (95% eCI: 1.5, 25.3), 21.3% (95% eCI: - 0.6, 39.4), and 28.7% (95% eCI: - 3.3, 48.0) in the 2090s under SSP1 - 2.6, SSP2 - 4.5, SSP3 - 7.0, and SSP5 - 8.5 scenarios, respectively. When excluding the natural forcing, the number of humaninduced heat-related CVD deaths would increase from approximately eight thousand (accounting for 31% of total heat-related CVD deaths) in the 2010s to 33,052 (68%), 63,283 (80%), 101,091 (87%), and 141,948 (90%) in the 2090s under SSP1 - 2.6, SSP2 - 4.5, SSP3 - 7.0, and SSP5 - 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Individuals with stroke, females, the elderly, people living in rural areas, and those with lower education level would exhibit heightened susceptibility to future high temperature. In addition, Southern and Eastern regions of China were expected to experience a faster increase in heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths. Interpretation Human activities would signi fi cantly amplify the future burden of heat-related CVD. Our study fi ndings suggested that active adaptation and mitigation measures towards future warming could yield substantial health bene fi ts for the patients with CVD. Funding National Natural Science Foundation of China. Copyright (c) 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	General & Internal Medicine ; Research & Experimental Medicine
WOS类目	Medicine, General & Internal ; Medicine, Research & Experimental
WOS记录号	WOS:001230697500001
来源期刊	EBIOMEDICINE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/288945
作者单位	Guangzhou Medical University; Guangzhou Medical University; China Agricultural University; ISGlobal; Griffith University; Griffith University - Gold Coast Campus; Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention; National Institute for Communicable Disease Control & Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention; Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention; National Institute for Communicable Disease Control & Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Qiongyu,Zhou, Maigeng,Sakhvidi, Mohammad Javad Zare,et al. Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China[J],2024,103.
APA	Zhu, Qiongyu.,Zhou, Maigeng.,Sakhvidi, Mohammad Javad Zare.,Yang, Siru.,Chen, Sujuan.,...&Yang, Jun.(2024).Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China.EBIOMEDICINE,103.
MLA	Zhu, Qiongyu,et al."Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China".EBIOMEDICINE 103(2024).