气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Inferring Northern Hemisphere Continental Warming Patterns from the Amplitude and Phase of the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0773.1
	Inferring Northern Hemisphere Continental Warming Patterns from the Amplitude and Phase of the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature
	Mckinnon, Karen a.; Huybers, Peter
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	37
结束页码	2
卷号	37 期号:2
英文摘要	The seasonal cycle in temperature is a large and well-observed response to radiative forcing, suggesting its potential as a natural analog to human-caused climate change. Although there have been advances constraining some cli-mate feedback parameters using seasonal observations, the seasonal cycle has not been used to inform about the local temperature sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing. In this study, we uncover a nonlinear relationship between the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle and forced temperature trends in seven CMIP5-era large ensembles across the Northern Hemisphere extratropical continents. We develop a mixture energy balance model that reproduces this relationship and re-veals the unexpected finding that the phasing of the seasonal cycle-in addition to the amplitude-contains information about local temperature sensitivity to seasonal forcing over land. Using this energy balance model framework, we compare the pattern and magnitude of the seasonally inferred sensitivity of the surface temperature response to anthropogenic radi-ative forcing. The seasonally constrained model largely reproduces the pattern of human-caused temperature trends seen in climate models (r = 0.81, p value < 0.01), including polar amplification, but the magnitude of the response is smaller by about a factor of 3. Our results show the relevance of both phasing and amplitude for constraining patterns of local feed-backs and suggest the utility of additional research to better understand the differences in sensitivity between seasonal and greenhouse gas forcing.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate prediction; Temperature; Seasonal cycle
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001129134400001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/288879
作者单位	University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Harvard University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mckinnon, Karen a.,Huybers, Peter. Inferring Northern Hemisphere Continental Warming Patterns from the Amplitude and Phase of the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature[J],2024,37(2).
APA	Mckinnon, Karen a.,&Huybers, Peter.(2024).Inferring Northern Hemisphere Continental Warming Patterns from the Amplitude and Phase of the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(2).
MLA	Mckinnon, Karen a.,et al."Inferring Northern Hemisphere Continental Warming Patterns from the Amplitude and Phase of the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.2(2024).