气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?

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DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130829
	Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?
	Todorovic, A.; Grabs, T.; Teutschbein, C.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
起始页码	632
卷号	632
英文摘要	Multi-model combination (averaging) methods (MMCMs) are used to improve the accuracy of hydrological (precipitation-runoff) outputs in simulation or forecasting/prediction modes. In this paper, we examined if the application of MMCMs can improve model performance in reproducing distributions of hydrological signatures, such as annual maxima or minima of varying durations. To this end, ten MMCMs were applied to 29 bucket-type models to simulate runoff in 50 high-latitude catchments. The MMCMs were evaluated by comparing the resulting simulated flows to the reference (i.e., best-performing) individual model, considering various commonly used performance indicators, as well as model performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Additionally, we analysed whether (1) the selection of the candidate models, or (2) targeting specific signatures, such as annual maxima or minima, can improve performance of the model combinations. The results suggest that the application of MMCMs can improve accuracy of runoff simulations in terms of traditional performance indicators, but fails to improve performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Neither excluding poor-performing models nor applying the MMCMs with the targeted signatures, improves this aspect of model performance. These findings clearly reveal the need for further research aiming at enhancing model performance in reproducing the distributions of hydrological signatures, which is essential for climate-change impact studies.
英文关键词	Conceptual hydrological models; Extreme flows; High -latitude catchments; Hydrological signatures; Information theory; Multi -model averaging
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001203139200001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/288740
作者单位	University of Belgrade; Uppsala University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Todorovic, A.,Grabs, T.,Teutschbein, C.. Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?[J],2024,632.
APA	Todorovic, A.,Grabs, T.,&Teutschbein, C..(2024).Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,632.
MLA	Todorovic, A.,et al."Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 632(2024).