气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 ° C climate change

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DOI	10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024
	Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 ° C climate change
	Archer, Leanne; Neal, Jeffrey; Bates, Paul; Vosper, Emily; Carroll, Dereka; Sosa, Jeison; Mitchell, Daniel
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1561-8633
EISSN	1684-9981
起始页码	24
结束页码	2
卷号	24 期号:2
英文摘要	Flooding associated with Hurricane Maria in 2017 had devastating consequences for lives and livelihoods in Puerto Rico. Yet, an understanding of current and future flood risk on small islands like Puerto Rico is limited. Thus, efforts to build resilience to flooding associated with hurricanes remain constrained. Here, we take an event set of hurricane rainfall estimates from a synthetic hurricane rainfall simulator as the input to an event-based rainfall-driven flood inundation model using the hydrodynamic code LISFLOOD-FP. Validation of our model against high-water-mark data for Hurricane Maria demonstrates the suitability of this model for estimating flood hazard in Puerto Rico. We produce event-based flood hazard and population exposure estimates for the present day and the future under the 1.5 and 2 (degrees) C Paris Agreement goals. Population exposure to flooding from hurricane rainfall in Puerto Rico for the present-day climate is approximately 8 %-10 % of the current population for a 5-year return period, with an increase in population exposure to flooding by 2 %-15 % and 1 %-20 % under 1.5 and 2(degrees) C futures (5-year return period). This research demonstrates the significance of the 1.5 (degrees) C Paris Agreement goal for Small Island Developing States, providing the first event-based estimates of flooding from hurricane rainfall under climate change for a small island.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001190518800001
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/288414
作者单位	University of Bristol; Jackson State University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Archer, Leanne,Neal, Jeffrey,Bates, Paul,et al. Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 ° C climate change[J],2024,24(2).
APA	Archer, Leanne.,Neal, Jeffrey.,Bates, Paul.,Vosper, Emily.,Carroll, Dereka.,...&Mitchell, Daniel.(2024).Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 ° C climate change.NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,24(2).
MLA	Archer, Leanne,et al."Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 ° C climate change".NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 24.2(2024).