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| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad31db |
| The size and composition of residual emissions in integrated assessment scenarios at net-zero CO2 | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 1748-9326 |
| 起始页码 | 19 |
| 结束页码 | 4 |
| 卷号 | 19期号:4 |
| 英文摘要 | Residual emissions are an important category of analysis in climate targets and scenarios, describing the emissions that would need to be compensated by carbon dioxide removal to reach net zero CO2. This article sheds light on the size and composition of residual emissions in integrated assessment modelling (IAM) scenarios at net-zero CO2, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th assessment report (AR6) scenario database. I find that IAMs depict residual greenhouse gas emissions levels of 16 [12-26] GtCO(2)e/yr across below 1.5 C-degrees, below 1.5 C-degrees with overshoot, and below 2 C-degrees scenarios-representing gross emissions reductions of 72 [55-78] % from 2020 to the point of net zero CO2. Emissions from livestock, agriculture, transport, waste and industrial processes remain most prevalent at net zero, with scenario averages tending to depict significantly lower reduction rates and higher residual emissions than those recently published in corporate net zero standards. Nonetheless, scenarios depict a wide range of outcomes across all of these 'hard-to-abate' sectors, with lower values characterised by demand-side shifts in the food and energy system, alongside the rapid electrification of end-use sectors and limits on CDR scaling. Current scenario reporting does not easily facilitate the calculation of gross emissions from the AR6 database, which would be a prerequisite to a more systematic exploration of the residual emissions frontier and its implications for climate policy. |
| 英文关键词 | climate change; greenhouse gas emissions; residual emissions; carbon dioxide removal |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001191096000001 |
| 来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/288308 |
| 作者单位 | University of Leeds |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . The size and composition of residual emissions in integrated assessment scenarios at net-zero CO2[J],2024,19(4). |
| APA | (2024).The size and composition of residual emissions in integrated assessment scenarios at net-zero CO2.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(4). |
| MLA | "The size and composition of residual emissions in integrated assessment scenarios at net-zero CO2".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.4(2024). |
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