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| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2400292121 |
| Cyclone Jasper's rains in the context of climate change | |
| Emanuel, Kerry | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0027-8424 |
| EISSN | 1091-6490 |
| 起始页码 | 121 |
| 结束页码 | 15 |
| 卷号 | 121期号:15 |
| 英文摘要 | Cyclone Jasper struck northern Queensland in mid- December, 2023, causing extensive flooding stemming from torrential rain. Many stations reported rainfall totals exceeding 1 m, and a few surpassed 2 m, possibly making Jasper the wettest tropical cyclone in Australian history. To be better prepared for events like Jasper, it is useful to estimate the probability of rainfall events of Jasper's magnitude and how that probability is likely to evolve as climate warms. To make such estimates, we apply an advanced tropical cyclone downscaling technique to nine global climate models, generating a total of 27,000 synthetic tropical cyclones each for the climate of the recent past and that of the end of this century. We estimate that the annual probability of 1 m of rain from tropical cyclones at Cairns increases from about 0.8% at the end of the 20th century to about 2.3% at the end of the 21st, a factor of almost three. Interpolating frequency to the year 2023 suggests that the current annual probability of Jasper's rainfall is about 1.2%, about a 50% increase over that of the year 2000. Further analysis suggests that the primary causes of increasing rainfall are stronger cyclones and a moister atmosphere. |
| 英文关键词 | tropical cyclones; |flooding; |climate change |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001207097800001 |
| 来源期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287662 |
| 作者单位 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Emanuel, Kerry. Cyclone Jasper's rains in the context of climate change[J],2024,121(15). |
| APA | Emanuel, Kerry.(2024).Cyclone Jasper's rains in the context of climate change.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,121(15). |
| MLA | Emanuel, Kerry."Cyclone Jasper's rains in the context of climate change".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 121.15(2024). |
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