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| DOI | 10.1002/joc.8490 |
| Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0899-8418 |
| EISSN | 1097-0088 |
| 英文摘要 | Water scarcity is a major challenge facing many regions worldwide, especially arid and semi-arid areas that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This study aimed to project water availability in the Amu Darya Basin (ADB) of Central Asia under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) during two upcoming periods (2020-2059 and 2060-2099). The study used a robust machine learning approach, namely a Random Forest (RF) model, to simulate Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data from precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin). It then incorporated precipitation, Tmax and Tmin from four selected CMIP6 GCMs, into a water storage model to project spatiotemporal changes in water availability across the basin. The study also evaluated the relative impacts of land use and population on TWS. Results indicate an increase in TWS by approximately 4 cm in the basin's eastern, northwestern and southwestern regions in both future periods, while a decrease by approximately -4 cm in the remaining areas. These projections suggest that TWS will decline in densely populated regions and increase in certain intensively cultivated areas. The most pronounced increase in TWS is anticipated in the snow-covered Tundra climate zone of the basin. This is attributed to the melting of glaciers, which contributes to runoff in the tributaries of the Amu River. The findings highlight the importance of considering climate change and socioeconomic factors when projecting water availability in arid and semi-arid regions. The projected changes in TWS have important implications for water resources management in the ADB, particularly in densely populated and intensively cultivated areas. This study revealed an increase in water availability by 4 cm in the east, northwest and southwest of Amu Darya Basin, while a decrease by -4 cm in the remaining areas in the future. The water availability will decline in densely populated regions and increase in certain intensively cultivated areas. image |
| 英文关键词 | GCMs; GRACE; land use; population distribution; water storage |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001237365200001 |
| 来源期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287516 |
| 作者单位 | Universiti Teknologi Malaysia; Universiti Teknologi Malaysia |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin[J],2024. |
| APA | (2024).Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
| MLA | "Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2024). |
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