气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Response of runoff and its components to climate change in the Manas River of the Tian Shan Mountains

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DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.005
	Response of runoff and its components to climate change in the Manas River of the Tian Shan Mountains
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1674-9278
起始页码	15
结束页码	1
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	A warming-wetting climate trend has led to increased runoff in most watersheds in the Tian Shan Mountains over the past few decades. However, it remains unclear how runoff components, that is, rainfall runoff (R-rain), snowmelt runoff (R-snow), and glacier meltwater (R-glacier), responded to historical climate change and how they will evolve under future climate change scenarios. Here, we used a modified Hydrologiska Byr & aring;ns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model and a detrending method to quantify the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on runoff components in the largest river (Manas River) on the northern slope of the Tian Shan Mountains from 1982 to 2015. A multivariate calibration strategy, including snow cover, glacier area, and runoff was implemented to constrain model parameters associated with runoff components. The downscaled outputs of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were also used to force the modified HBV model to project the response of runoff and its components to future (2016-2100) climate change under three common socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The results indicate that R-rain dominates mean annual runoff with a proportion of 42%, followed by R-snow (37%) and R-glacier (21%). In terms of inter-annual variation, R-rain and R-snow show increasing trends (0.93 (p < 0.05) and 0.31 (p > 0.05) mm per year), while R-glacier exhibits an insignificant (p > 0.05) decreasing trend (-0.12 mm per year), leading to an increasing trend in total runoff (1.12 mm per year, p > 0.05). The attribution analysis indicates that changes in precipitation and temperature contribute 8.16 and 10.37 mm, respectively, to the increase in runoff at the mean annual scale. Climate wetting (increased precipitation) increases R-rain (5.03 mm) and R-snow (3.19 mm) but has a limited effect on R-glacier (-0.06 mm), while warming increases R-rain (10.69 mm) and R-glacier (5.79 mm) but decreases R-snow (-6.12 mm). The negative effect of glacier shrinkage on R-glacier has outweighed the positive effect of warming on R-glacier, resulting in the tipping point (peak water) for R-glacier having passed. Runoff projections indicate that future decreases in R-glacier and R-snow could be offset by increases in R-rain due to increased precipitation projections, reducing the risk of shortages of available water resources. However, management authorities still need to develop adequate adaptation strategies to cope with the continuing decline in R-glacier in the future, considering the large inter-annual fluctuations and high uncertainty in precipitation projection.
英文关键词	Tian Shan; Rainfall runoff; Snowmelt runoff; Glacier meltwater; Warming - wetting; Tipping point
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001189232700001
来源期刊	ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287467
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	. Response of runoff and its components to climate change in the Manas River of the Tian Shan Mountains[J],2024,15(1).
APA	(2024).Response of runoff and its components to climate change in the Manas River of the Tian Shan Mountains.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,15(1).
MLA	"Response of runoff and its components to climate change in the Manas River of the Tian Shan Mountains".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 15.1(2024).

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