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| DOI | 10.1029/2023WR036072 |
| Projected Intensified Hydrological Processes in the Three-River Headwater Region, Qinghai Tibetan Plateau | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0043-1397 |
| EISSN | 1944-7973 |
| 起始页码 | 60 |
| 结束页码 | 5 |
| 卷号 | 60期号:5 |
| 英文摘要 | The Three-River Headwater Region, also known as China's water tower, is highly sensitive to climate change and has experienced profound hydrological alterations in the last few decades. This study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on all the important hydrological components such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, snow-melt flow, and soil moisture (SM) content in the region. For this, climate data (i.e., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and windspeed) of three Global Climate Models (i.e., CanESM5, MPI-ESM1.2-HR, and NorESM2-MM) was downscaled with the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and their ensemble was forced into a hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes for 1981-2100. The screening process, which is central to all downscaling techniques, is very subjective in the SDSM. Therefore, we developed a quantitative screening approach by modifying the method applied by Mahmood and Babel (2013, ) for the selection of a set of logical predictors to cope with multi-collinearity and their ranking. The analyses were performed for the near future period (NFP, 2021-2060) and far future period (FFP, 2061-2100) relative to the baseline period (BLP, 1981-2020). The results showed that the region will be hotter and wetter in the future, with intensive and frequent floods. For example, temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow will increase by 1.0-1.5 (1-1.9)degrees C, 9-21 (15-27)%, 6-17 (9-29)%, and 9-46 (22-64)% in the NFP and by 2.0-2.8 (2.7-4.6)degrees C, 16-40 (43-87)%, 11-31 (24-73)%, and 20-95 (60-198)% in the FFP, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5). Similar projections were explored for other hydrological components. Among all, surface flow showed an unprecedented increase (500%-1,000%) in the FFP. Peak flows will be much higher and will shift forward, and snowmelt will start earlier in the future. The results of the present study can be a good source for understanding the hydrological cycle and be used for the planning and management of water resources of the highly elevated and complex region of the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau. The Three-River Headwater Region, which is also known as the Sanjiangyuan in Chinese, is located in Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, China. It is considered the water tower of China because it is the source of three giant rivers the Yangtze, Yellow, and Lancang (Mekong). However, its water resources (hydrological cycle) are very sensitive and vulnerable to changing climate. Therefore, we assessed the potential impact of climate change on all the important hydrological components such as precipitation, streamflow, snow melt flow, surface flow, baseflow, soil moisture (SM), and changes in terrestrial water storage. Previous studies mainly focused on precipitation, streamflow, and SM. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the main tool to assess the future changes in hydrological components under changing climate. Since GCMs have a coarse spatial resolution and biases in their outputs, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied to fix these issues and used to generate climate data (e.g., temperature and precipitation) for the future (2021-2100) under two scenarios (i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). These scenarios represent the global development and greenhouse gas emissions in the future. SSP2-4.5 scenario typically involves moderate greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts and some adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change impacts, and SSP5-8.5 represents high greenhouse gas emissions and limited efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. The screening process, which is central to all downscaling techniques, is very subjective in the SDSM. Therefore, we developed a quantitative screening approach by modifying the method applied by Mahmood and Babel (2013, ) for the selection of a set of logical predictors to cope with multi-collinearity and their ranking. The downscaled future climate data was used as input to run a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) to generate hydrological components under both scenarios. The future changes in the hydrological components were obtained for 2021-2060 and 2061-2100 with respect to the baseline period 1981-2020. The results showed that the region will be hotter and wetter in the future, with intensive and frequent floods. Almost all components are expected to increase in the future under both scenarios. Among all, surface flow showed an unprecedented increase (500%-1,000%) in the second half of the twenty-first century (2061-2100). Peak flows are expected to be much higher than the present conditions and to shift forward. Snowmelt will start earlier in the future. This study will be very useful in understanding the hydrological cycle and can be used by policymakers, planners, and stakeholders for proactive adaptation strategies such as water resources planning and management, investments in water infrastructure, land use planning, ecosystem restoration, and community resilience-building initiatives to mitigate potential risks. The region will be hotter and wetter, with intensive and frequent floods The hydrological components are expected to increase in the future Surface flow showed an unprecedented increase of 500%-1,000% |
| 英文关键词 | hydrologic cycle; statistical downscaling; hydrologic modeling; climate change; three-river headwater region; HEC-HMS |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001214240700001 |
| 来源期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287464 |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Projected Intensified Hydrological Processes in the Three-River Headwater Region, Qinghai Tibetan Plateau[J],2024,60(5). |
| APA | (2024).Projected Intensified Hydrological Processes in the Three-River Headwater Region, Qinghai Tibetan Plateau.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,60(5). |
| MLA | "Projected Intensified Hydrological Processes in the Three-River Headwater Region, Qinghai Tibetan Plateau".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 60.5(2024). |
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