气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41559-024-02426-4
	Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches
	Chevalier, Mathieu; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2397-334X
英文摘要	The ability of climatic niche models to predict species extinction risks can be hampered if niches are incompletely quantified. This can occur when niches are estimated considering only currently available climatic conditions, disregarding the fact that climate change can open up portions of the fundamental niche that are currently inaccessible to species. Using a new metric, we estimate the prevalence of potential situations of fundamental niche truncation by measuring whether current ecological niche limits are contiguous to the boundaries of currently available climatic conditions for 24,944 species at the global scale in both terrestrial and marine realms and including animals and plants. We show that 12,172 (similar to 49%) species are showing niche contiguity, particularly those inhabiting tropical ecosystems and the marine realm. Using niche expansion scenarios, we find that 86% of species showing niche contiguity could have a fundamental niche potentially expanding beyond current climatic limits, resulting in lower-yet still alarming-rates of predicted biodiversity loss, particularly within the tropics. Caution is therefore advised when forecasting future distributions of species presenting niche contiguity, particularly towards climatic limits that are predicted to expand in the future.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS类目	Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS记录号	WOS:001235036100001
来源期刊	NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287385
作者单位	Universite de Bretagne Occidentale; Ifremer; University of Lausanne; University of Lausanne
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chevalier, Mathieu,Broennimann, Olivier,Guisan, Antoine. Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches[J],2024.
APA	Chevalier, Mathieu,Broennimann, Olivier,&Guisan, Antoine.(2024).Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches.NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION.
MLA	Chevalier, Mathieu,et al."Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches".NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION (2024).