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| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0263.1 |
| Increasing Long-Term Memory as an Early Warning Signal for a Critical Transition | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| EISSN | 1520-0442 |
| 起始页码 | 37 |
| 结束页码 | 2 |
| 卷号 | 37期号:2 |
| 英文摘要 | In recent years, various early warning signals of critical transition have been presented, such as autocorrela-tion at lag 1 [AR(1)], variance, the propagator based on detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA-propagator), and so on. Many studies have shown that the climate system has the characteristics of long-term memory (LTM). Will the LTM char-acteristics of the climate system change as it approaches possible critical transition points? In view of this, the present paper first studies whether the LTM of several folding (folded bifurcation) models changes consistently as they approach their critical points slowly by the rescaled range (R/S) analysis. The results of numerical experiments show that when the control parameters of the folding model are close to its critical threshold, the Hurst exponent H exhibits an almost monotonic in-crease (significance level a = 0.05). We compare the performance of R/S with the existing indicators, including AR(1), var-iance, and DFA-propagator, and find that R/S is a perfectly valid alternative. When there is no extra false noise, AR(1) and variance have good early warning effects. After the addition of extra Gaussian white noise of different intensities, the values of AR(1) and variance change significantly. As a result, the DFA-propagator based on AR(1) calibration also changed significantly. Compared with the other three indicators, the early warning effect of H has stronger ability to resist the interference of external false signals. To further verify the validity of increasing H, paleoclimate reconstruction of Cariaco Basin sediment core grayscale record with long trends filtered out is studied by R/S analysis. The other three early warning signals are calculated in the same way. The data contain a well-known abrupt climate change: the transition be-tween the Younger Dryas (YD) and the Holocene. We find that approximately 300 years before this abrupt climate change occurred, before 11.7 kyr BP, the LTM exponents for Cariaco Basin deglacial grayscale data present an obvious increasing trend at a significant level of a = 0.05. Meanwhile, the variation trend of H and DFA-propagator is basically similar. This shows that increasing H by R/S analysis is an effective early warning signal, which indicates that a dynamic system is ap-proaching its possible critical transition points; His a completely valid alternative signal for AR(1) and DFA-propagator. The main conclusion of this paper is based on numerical experiments. The precise relationship between H and the stability of the underlying state approaching the transition needs to be further studied. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change; Climatology; Paleoclimate; Changepoint analysis; Time series |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001131592100001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287280 |
| 作者单位 | Sun Yat Sen University; Southern Marine Science & Engineering Guangdong Laboratory; Southern Marine Science & Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai); Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Increasing Long-Term Memory as an Early Warning Signal for a Critical Transition[J],2024,37(2). |
| APA | (2024).Increasing Long-Term Memory as an Early Warning Signal for a Critical Transition.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(2). |
| MLA | "Increasing Long-Term Memory as an Early Warning Signal for a Critical Transition".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.2(2024). |
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