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| DOI | 10.1080/19475705.2023.2291330 |
| Estimation of changes in runoff and its sources in response to future climate change in a critical zone of the Karakoram mountainous region, Pakistan in the near and far future | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 1947-5705 |
| EISSN | 1947-5713 |
| 起始页码 | 15 |
| 结束页码 | 1 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | The inconsistent pattern of precipitation, a shift in the seasonality of river flows, and the early onset of snow and glacier melt in recent decades across river basins of High Mountain Asia (HMA) has compelled us to further investigate future variations in sources of runoff under projected climate change scenarios. This will help in determining the timing and magnitude of runoff components and this will help in management of future water resources. The current study employed the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBC WM) to estimate the spatiotemporal variations in simulated runoff components (i.e. snowmelt, glacier melt, rainfall-runoff, and baseflow) and their relative contribution to total runoff of Gilgit River regarding the baseline period (1981-2010) in near (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) under low (SSP1), medium (SSP2) and high (SSP5) emission scenarios. A significant increase in the magnitude of mean annual temperature and precipitation is expected in the near future (2021-2050) than far future (2071-2100) under most SSPs. Moreover, high-altitude stations of the Gilgit River basin are expected to experience more warming in the near and far future than low altitudes under all SSPs. On average, regarding the baseline period, the simulated runoff is projected to increase in the near (27%, 30%, and 33%) and far future (30%, 53%, and 91%) under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5, respectively. Moreover, an early onset of snow/glacier melting is predicted in the far future due to an increase in summer air temperature and a decline in winter (DJF) precipitation. Besides, the rise in high altitude temperature is expected to cause the melting of snow/glaciers even above 6000 m elevation in the far future. |
| 英文关键词 | Gilgit River basin; general circulation model; shared socioeconomic pathways; UBC WM; climate change; runoff |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001130420800001 |
| 来源期刊 | GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/287176 |
| 作者单位 | Yunnan University; University of Engineering & Technology Lahore; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Czech Academy of Sciences; Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Estimation of changes in runoff and its sources in response to future climate change in a critical zone of the Karakoram mountainous region, Pakistan in the near and far future[J],2024,15(1). |
| APA | (2024).Estimation of changes in runoff and its sources in response to future climate change in a critical zone of the Karakoram mountainous region, Pakistan in the near and far future.GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK,15(1). |
| MLA | "Estimation of changes in runoff and its sources in response to future climate change in a critical zone of the Karakoram mountainous region, Pakistan in the near and far future".GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK 15.1(2024). |
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