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| DOI | 10.1016/j.pce.2024.103599 |
| Investigation of climate change impacts on daily streamflow extremes in Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 1474-7065 |
| EISSN | 1873-5193 |
| 起始页码 | 134 |
| 卷号 | 134 |
| 英文摘要 | This study was undertaken to evaluate how future uncertain climate-related hydrological responses and low and highflow frequencies affect local hydrology up to the 2100, depending on different Global Circulation Models (GCM) and different Concentration Scenarios (CS). To this end, daily total precipitation and daily mean temperature data were used for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 CSs by employing GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and MPIESM-MR). In the study, the years 1971-2000 were chosen as the baseline period. Future streamflow predictions were modeled by machine learning. The models were calibrated with baseline period data and future streamflow values were predicted by using the best Streamflow Prediction Model during the 2055s (2041-2070) and 2085s (2071-2100) periods. Flow Duration Curves from the streamflow predictions were obtained and by using them, discharges corresponding to 95% probability of exceedance for lowflow and 5% probability of exceedance for highflow were calculated. According to the findings, it is predicted that there will be decrease of approximately 21% in lowflow discharges and approximately 30% in highflow discharges. This prediction has suggested water resources managers to implement mitigation measures to climate change in Eastern Black Sea Basin and most probably in T & uuml;rkiye, especially in the context of continuity of aquatic life and sustainable water supply. It is expected that the paper will take a very important place in estimating and evaluating the expected changes in basin hydrology in the coming years, especially in the highflows and lowflows, which are the key concepts in hydroelectric power generation and in flood management. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change; Daily streamflow extremes; Streamflow forecasting; Water resources pre -planning |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001231996700001 |
| 来源期刊 | PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286815 |
| 作者单位 | Amasya University; Karadeniz Technical University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Investigation of climate change impacts on daily streamflow extremes in Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey[J],2024,134. |
| APA | (2024).Investigation of climate change impacts on daily streamflow extremes in Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey.PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,134. |
| MLA | "Investigation of climate change impacts on daily streamflow extremes in Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey".PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH 134(2024). |
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