气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil's Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-024-06556-7
	Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil's Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario
	Toste, Raquel; Vasconcelos, Adriano; Assad, Luiz Paulo de Freitas; Landau, Luiz
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
起始页码	120
结束页码	8
卷号	120 期号:8
英文摘要	In recent years, extensive research has been conducted on various aspects of climate change, with particular attention given to the sea level rise (SLR) as a significant consequence of global warming. Although a general trend of positive SLR exists worldwide, regional variations in SLR rates are observed. This study aims to investigate the potential impact of SLR projected by a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 model, under a 4.5 W m-2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$<^>{-2}$$\end{document} radiative forcing stabilization scenario by 2100, on coastal flooding along the Brazilian Coast. To achieve this, an ocean numerical downscaling approach was employed using multiple nested grids with the Regional Ocean Modeling System, with a specific focus on the Guanabara Bay region. Guanabara Bay is a vital water body that receives substantial water discharges from the densely populated Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area. Two experiments were conducted simulating the present (1995-2005) and future conditions (2090-2100), and the projected changes were evaluated. The results reveal a projected SLR of 0.69 m at Fiscal Island by the end of the century, anticipating potential loss of remaining mangrove areas and the expansion and persistence of coastal flooding in important tourist destinations within the Rio de Janeiro Municipality. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the potential impacts of SLR on coastal flooding in the Brazilian Coast, emphasizing the importance of considering regional variations in SLR rates for effective coastal management and adaptation strategies.
英文关键词	Climate change; Coastal flooding; Ocean modeling; CMIP5; ROMS
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001191079000001
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286802
作者单位	Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Toste, Raquel,Vasconcelos, Adriano,Assad, Luiz Paulo de Freitas,et al. Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil's Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario[J],2024,120(8).
APA	Toste, Raquel,Vasconcelos, Adriano,Assad, Luiz Paulo de Freitas,&Landau, Luiz.(2024).Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil's Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario.NATURAL HAZARDS,120(8).
MLA	Toste, Raquel,et al."Dynamically downscaled coastal flooding in Brazil's Guanabara Bay under a future climate change scenario".NATURAL HAZARDS 120.8(2024).