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| DOI | 10.3390/agronomy14040650 |
| Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Invasive Freshwater Apple Snail Pomacea canaliculate (Lamarck, 1819) under Climate Change Based on Biomod2 | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2073-4395 |
| 起始页码 | 14 |
| 结束页码 | 4 |
| 卷号 | 14期号:4 |
| 英文摘要 | Pomacea canaliculata is widely distributed in the Chinese provinces south of the Yangtze River, causing serious damage to aquatic ecosystems, rice cultivation, and human health. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of P. canaliculata under current and future climate conditions in China is crucial for developing effective early warning measures and facilitating long-term monitoring. In this study, we screened various species distribution models (SDMs), including CTA, GBM, GAM, RF, and XGBOOST, to construct an ensemble model (EM) and then predict suitable habitats for P. canaliculata under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, SSP5-85). The EM (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.96) yielded predictions that were more precise than those from the individual models. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1) and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (Bio18) are the most significant environmental variables affecting the PGDs of P. canaliculata. Under current climate conditions, the highly suitable habitats for P. canaliculata are primarily located south of the Yangtze River, collectively accounting for 17.66% of the nation's total area. Unsuitable habitats predominate in higher-latitude regions, collectively covering 66.79% of China's total land area. In future climate scenarios, the total number of suitable habitats for P. canaliculata is projected to expand into higher latitude regions, especially under SSP3-70 and SSP5-85 climate conditions. The 4.1 degrees C contour of Bio1 and the 366 mm contour of Bio18 determine the northernmost geographical distribution of P. canaliculata. Climate change is likely to increase the risk of P. canaliculata expanding into higher latitudes. |
| 英文关键词 | Biomod2; climate change; Pomacea canaliculata; potential geographic distributions |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Plant Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Agronomy ; Plant Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001211349500001 |
| 来源期刊 | AGRONOMY-BASEL
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286752 |
| 作者单位 | Yangtze University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Invasive Freshwater Apple Snail Pomacea canaliculate (Lamarck, 1819) under Climate Change Based on Biomod2[J],2024,14(4). |
| APA | (2024).Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Invasive Freshwater Apple Snail Pomacea canaliculate (Lamarck, 1819) under Climate Change Based on Biomod2.AGRONOMY-BASEL,14(4). |
| MLA | "Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Invasive Freshwater Apple Snail Pomacea canaliculate (Lamarck, 1819) under Climate Change Based on Biomod2".AGRONOMY-BASEL 14.4(2024). |
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