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| DOI | 10.1016/j.rineng.2024.102038 |
| Future flood envelope curves for the estimation of design flood magnitudes for highway bridges at river crossings | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2590-1230 |
| 起始页码 | 22 |
| 卷号 | 22 |
| 英文摘要 | Creager flood envelope curves, which serve as the upper bound/limit of observed extreme flows, are commonly used by practitioners to estimate design flood magnitudes, which in the case of most river-crossing highway bridges is 75-year flood magnitude in Canada. This study proposes a novel framework for climate change adaption of Creager curves for estimating future design floods. These curves, for the current period, are assessed considering 417 observation stations, located in seven major Canadian river basins (i.e., Fraser, Nelson, Mackenzie, Yukon, Churchill, St Lawrence and St John). The Creager coefficient C, which defines flood envelope curves, varies between 1 and 45 across the studied river basins. To adapt Creager curves for future changes in streamflow, a correction factor, R-C, which is the ratio of future to current period C values, is proposed. These factors are obtained for observation sites, using streamflow data from an ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for current and future periods, through two Regional Frequency Analysis approaches. The first approach, considering only the RCM cells where the stations are located, suggests R-C in the 0.3-1.6 range, with southeasterly basins showing values < 1. The second approach, considering all RCM cells for a given region, yields a wider range for R-C and adds useful information in that R-C values can also be established at ungauged locations. From a practical viewpoint, the proposed framework for estimating future design floods is robust and transferrable to other basins, but can benefit using streamflow projections from other models for better uncertainty quantification. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change; Creager curves; Design floods; Bridges; Regional flood frequency analysis; Regional climate modeling |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering |
| WOS类目 | Engineering, Multidisciplinary |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001221031100001 |
| 来源期刊 | RESULTS IN ENGINEERING
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286668 |
| 作者单位 | McGill University; National Research Council Canada; National Research Council Canada |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Future flood envelope curves for the estimation of design flood magnitudes for highway bridges at river crossings[J],2024,22. |
| APA | (2024).Future flood envelope curves for the estimation of design flood magnitudes for highway bridges at river crossings.RESULTS IN ENGINEERING,22. |
| MLA | "Future flood envelope curves for the estimation of design flood magnitudes for highway bridges at river crossings".RESULTS IN ENGINEERING 22(2024). |
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