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| DOI | 10.1007/s40808-024-01959-8 |
| Climate change impact on rain-fed agriculture of Northern Mexico. An analysis based on the CanESM5 model | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2363-6203 |
| EISSN | 2363-6211 |
| 英文摘要 | Rain-fed agriculture (RA) is highly vulnerable to environmental factors, and in Mexico, this vulnerability has been worsened by climate change (CC). Therefore, it is crucial to assess the impact of these effects at the local level. The study's aims were: (1) to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on RA in Northern Mexico in the near future (2021-2040), and (2) to analyze the adaptation measures employed by farmers to sustain and protect RA as a significant economic activity. The research focused on the municipalities of Durango in the northern region as the study area (SA). To determine variations in key environmental drivers, the CanESM5 model was used for the near future, considering two radiative forcing scenarios: 2.6 and 8.5 Wm-2. Interviews were conducted using a random stratification design, ranging from general to specific focus, to assess farmers' adaptation strategies. The findings revealed that the mean rainfall and temperature at the SA could increase by 13.4-13.7%, and 1.8-2.1 oC, respectively. Based on the interviews, ten primary adaptation strategies were identified among farmers in response to CC. These strategies were categorized into five domains: social, human, financial, fixed assets, and natural. Surprisingly, only 16% of the farmers reported being unprepared for adverse scenarios. However, considering the escalating desertification and other external factors, it is crucial to recognize the study area as a risk zone. Farmers in this region should now prioritize adopting sustainable adaptation and mitigation measures for agriculture, both in the present and near future, to effectively cope with these challenges. |
| 英文关键词 | Arid lands; Thornthwaite; Adaptation; Mitigation; AR6 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001187431000001 |
| 来源期刊 | MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286615 |
| 作者单位 | Universidad Autonoma de Aguascalientes |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Climate change impact on rain-fed agriculture of Northern Mexico. An analysis based on the CanESM5 model[J],2024. |
| APA | (2024).Climate change impact on rain-fed agriculture of Northern Mexico. An analysis based on the CanESM5 model.MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT. |
| MLA | "Climate change impact on rain-fed agriculture of Northern Mexico. An analysis based on the CanESM5 model".MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT (2024). |
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