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| DOI | 10.1111/ddi.13837 |
| Kelp forest diversity under projected end-of-century climate change | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 1366-9516 |
| EISSN | 1472-4642 |
| 起始页码 | 30 |
| 结束页码 | 6 |
| 卷号 | 30期号:6 |
| 英文摘要 | Aim: Future climate change threatens marine forests across the world, potentially disrupting ecosystem function and services. Nonetheless, the direction and intensity of climate-induced changes in kelp forest biodiversity remain unknown, precluding well-informed conservation and management practices. Location: Global. Methods: We use machine-learning models to forecast global changes in species richness and community composition of 105 kelp forest species under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of climate change (decade 2090-2100): one aligned with the Paris Agreement and another of substantially higher emissions. Results: A poleward and depth shift in species distributions is forecasted, translating into similar to 15% less area in the extent of the global biome, coupled with marked regional biodiversity changes. Community composition changes are mostly projected in the Arctic, the Northern Pacific and Atlantic, and Australasia, owing to poleward range expansions and wide low latitude losses. Main Conclusions: By surpassing the Paris Agreement expectations, species reshuffling may simplify and impair ecosystem services in numerous temperate regions of Australasia, Southern Africa, Southern America and the Northern Atlantic, and in the tropical Pacific, where complete species losses were projected without replacement. These estimates, flagging threatened regions and species, as well as refugial areas of population persistence, can now inform conservation, management and restoration practices considering future climate change. |
| 英文关键词 | biodiversity; climate change; kelp forests; macrophytes; Paris Agreement; range shifts |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001202848900001 |
| 来源期刊 | DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286409 |
| 作者单位 | Universidade do Algarve; Nord University; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); University of Evora |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Kelp forest diversity under projected end-of-century climate change[J],2024,30(6). |
| APA | (2024).Kelp forest diversity under projected end-of-century climate change.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,30(6). |
| MLA | "Kelp forest diversity under projected end-of-century climate change".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 30.6(2024). |
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