气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A framework for estimating the anthropogenic part of Antarctica's sea level contribution in a synthetic setting

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s43247-024-01287-w
	A framework for estimating the anthropogenic part of Antarctica's sea level contribution in a synthetic setting
	Bradley, Alexander T.; Bett, David T.; Holland, Paul R.; Williams, C. Rosie; Arthern, Robert J.; Rydt, Jan De
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2662-4435
起始页码	5
结束页码	1
卷号	5 期号:1
英文摘要	The relative contributions of anthropogenic climate change and internal variability in sea level rise from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are yet to be determined. Even the way to address this question is not yet clear, since these two are linked through ice-ocean feedbacks and probed using ice sheet models with substantial uncertainty. Here we demonstrate how their relative contributions can be assessed by simulating the retreat of a synthetic ice sheet setup using an ice sheet model. Using a Bayesian approach, we construct distributions of sea level rise associated with this retreat. We demonstrate that it is necessary to account for both uncertainties arising from both a poorly-constrained model parameter and stochastic variations in climatic forcing, and our distributions of sea level rise include these two. These sources of uncertainty have only previously been considered in isolation. We identify characteristic effects of climate change on sea level rise distributions in this setup, most notably that climate change increases both the median and the weight in tails of distributions. From these findings, we construct metrics quantifying the role of climate change on both past and future sea level rise, suggesting that its attribution is possible even for unstable marine ice sheets. The relative contributions of anthropogenic climate change and internal variability to sea level rise from a synthetic marine ice sheet can be estimated using a Bayesian approach, suggesting that attribution of real-world sea level rise may be possible.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001182369300001
来源期刊	COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286337
作者单位	UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC British Antarctic Survey; Northumbria University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bradley, Alexander T.,Bett, David T.,Holland, Paul R.,et al. A framework for estimating the anthropogenic part of Antarctica's sea level contribution in a synthetic setting[J],2024,5(1).
APA	Bradley, Alexander T.,Bett, David T.,Holland, Paul R.,Williams, C. Rosie,Arthern, Robert J.,&Rydt, Jan De.(2024).A framework for estimating the anthropogenic part of Antarctica's sea level contribution in a synthetic setting.COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,5(1).
MLA	Bradley, Alexander T.,et al."A framework for estimating the anthropogenic part of Antarctica's sea level contribution in a synthetic setting".COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 5.1(2024).