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| DOI | 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100612 |
| Effectiveness and resilience of BMPs to watershed climate adaptation considering the uncertainty of hydrological model and GCMs | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2212-0963 |
| 起始页码 | 44 |
| 卷号 | 44 |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change significantly impacts catchment hydrologic and water quality processes. Best management practices (BMPs) can serve as adaptation strategies to negate the impact of climate change on sediment and total nitrogen (TN) loads. One major controversial issue in climate change adaptation studies is the highly uncertain nature of such changes. Previous studies have rarely focused on the combined impact of the uncertainty in climate change and watershed model parameters, which could be the main sources of uncertainty in climate change adaptation research. In this study, the effectiveness and resilience (defined as continued effectiveness under a changing climate) of BMPs in reducing sediment and TN loads were explored under future climate change in the Shanmei Reservoir watershed (SMW) of Southeast China. Climate change projections provided by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP37.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2031 to 2060 were applied in the Annualized Agricultural Nonpoint Source (AnnAGNPS) model to evaluate the effectiveness and resilience of 4 BMPs (riparian buffers (RB), no-tillage (NT), fertilization reduction (FR), and parallel terraces (PT)). The ensemble average of 10 GCMs and 10 behavior parameter groups were adopted to reduce the uncertainty resulting from the hydrological model parameters and GCMs. The results indicated that the average annual temperature and precipitation in the SMW will increase in the future. On a seasonal scale, the average temperature during all seasons will increase, and precipitation will decrease in summer and autumn but increase in spring and winter. The annual sediment and TN loads will decrease, but the loads in spring and winter will increase. BMPs could be effective as climate adaptation strategies for reducing sediment and TN loads under future climate conditions, with PT as the most effective option. Structural BMPs were more effective in reducing sediment and TN loads in spring and winter, whereas nonstructural BMPs were more effective in reducing loads in summer and autumn. BMPs were more resilient when future watershed runoff changes were slight or climate sensitivity was reduced, with higher BMP resilience in spring and winter than in summer and autumn. This study aimed to provide systematic references for watersheds through the implementation of BMPs for mitigating the effects of climate change and extending the boundaries of the AnnAGNPS model application. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change; Best management practices; Adaptation; Resilience; Sediment; Total nitrogen |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001236664600001 |
| 来源期刊 | CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286189 |
| 作者单位 | Fujian Normal University; Fujian Normal University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Effectiveness and resilience of BMPs to watershed climate adaptation considering the uncertainty of hydrological model and GCMs[J],2024,44. |
| APA | (2024).Effectiveness and resilience of BMPs to watershed climate adaptation considering the uncertainty of hydrological model and GCMs.CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT,44. |
| MLA | "Effectiveness and resilience of BMPs to watershed climate adaptation considering the uncertainty of hydrological model and GCMs".CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT 44(2024). |
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