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| DOI | 10.1029/2023WR034979 |
| Spatial and Temporal Changes in Nutrient Source Contribution in a Lowland Catchment Within the Baltic Sea Region Under Climate Change Scenarios | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0043-1397 |
| EISSN | 1944-7973 |
| 起始页码 | 60 |
| 结束页码 | 5 |
| 卷号 | 60期号:5 |
| 英文摘要 | Currently, climate change is considered as an important factor affecting nutrient loads introduced through riverine systems into the Baltic Sea. Although the prospect of a large increase in pollution has long seemed very real, it still does not translate into planning of effective remedial actions. One of the factors limiting the development of such activities is the scale of simulations, focusing generally on catchment outlet profiles. To fill this gap and enable a step forward in understanding responses toward future predictions in a higher resolution scale (subcatchment), we assessed nutrient load contribution using calculation profiles localized along a main watercourse and its tributaries. To track spatial and seasonal changes of total nitrogen and phosphorus for the We & lstrok;na River (central Poland), we used climate change data and the SWAT model. Having at our disposal a catchment model with a good performance we could follow not only total load changes in particular subcatchments, but also track localization of the pollution sources and their direct impact on load estimations. Our results showed an increase of the loads, especially from the agricultural land use type, up to 34% for TN and 85% for TP, in the most extreme scenario. Moreover, forest areas have been noted as highly reactive to climate change, and through their localisation are able to distinctly alter nutrient outflow. Finally, the contribution of urban areas should be further investigated since the dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus release from impervious surfaces is noticeably different here than from the other diffuse sources. This paper describes how climate change will affect the amount of nutrients in a small river catchment in the Baltic Sea region. While it is known that climate change can increase nutrient loads, effective actions to prevent them are still lacking. The big picture based on a whole catchment is still poor in terms of finding nutrient vulnerable areas. In this research, we looked at a more detailed scale to see where the nutrients are coming from and how they are changing over time. We used computer modeling to show that the amount of nutrients coming from agriculture, forests, and city areas will increase due to climate change. Overall, the amount of nitrogen can raise by 34% and the amount of phosphorus by 85%. Our results can be the basis for making decisions regarding actions aimed at improving the condition of surface waters and counteracting climate change effects. Spatio-temporal trends of nutrient loads have been tracked in a Baltic Sea region catchment under climate change scenarios Climate change suggests a potential load increase from the whole catchment by 34% for total nitrogen and 85% for total phosphorus Outputs from individual nutrient sources could grow by even 187% for total nitrogen and 302% for total phosphorus |
| 英文关键词 | nutrient loads; modeling; SWAT; climate change; water management; We & lstrok;na River |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001215013400001 |
| 来源期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286175 |
| 作者单位 | AGH University of Krakow; Institute of Meteorology & Water Management |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Spatial and Temporal Changes in Nutrient Source Contribution in a Lowland Catchment Within the Baltic Sea Region Under Climate Change Scenarios[J],2024,60(5). |
| APA | (2024).Spatial and Temporal Changes in Nutrient Source Contribution in a Lowland Catchment Within the Baltic Sea Region Under Climate Change Scenarios.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,60(5). |
| MLA | "Spatial and Temporal Changes in Nutrient Source Contribution in a Lowland Catchment Within the Baltic Sea Region Under Climate Change Scenarios".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 60.5(2024). |
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