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| DOI | 10.1016/j.jobe.2024.108527 |
| A bi-level optimization method for regional integrated energy system considering uncertainty and load prediction under climate change | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2352-7102 |
| 起始页码 | 84 |
| 卷号 | 84 |
| 英文摘要 | The global energy shortage problem has become increasingly serious, and regional the integrated energy system (RIES) has become the inevitable choice for energy development. However, climate change and uncertainty bring challenges to the planning of RIES. In order to address this, this study presents a bi-level optimization method for RIES considering uncertainty and load prediction under climate change. First, a method for predicting regional building loads under climate change is proposed and a bi-level optimization model for RIES is then developed. The upper -level model optimizes the capacity configuration of RIES with cost and exergy efficiency as the optimization objectives. The lower -level model optimizes the operation strategy of the system to minimize operating costs. In addition, uncertainty issues in the optimization process are addressed using the interval optimization method. Finally, the optimal solution is determined using the entropy weight - technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (EWTOPSIS). A case study verified the efficacy of the proposed method. The results reveal that future climate and uncertainty affect the optimization results of RIES. Under climate change, the configured capacity of the waste heat boiler and gas boiler decreased by 18.7% and 13.76%, respectively, while the electric chiller capacity increased by 29.39%. Uncertainty to induce to an increase in the total configured capacity of energy production and conversion equipment. Moreover, interval values for the system operating costs and operating strategies were obtained, which can provide a reference for RIES operation scheduling. The study provides valuable guidance for the capacity configuration and operation optimization of RIES under climate change. |
| 英文关键词 | Regional integrated energy system; Climate change; Load prediction; Bi-level optimization; Interval optimization |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Construction & Building Technology ; Engineering |
| WOS类目 | Construction & Building Technology ; Engineering, Civil |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001168185500001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF BUILDING ENGINEERING
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286050 |
| 作者单位 | Shandong Jianzhu University; Tianjin University; Tianjin University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . A bi-level optimization method for regional integrated energy system considering uncertainty and load prediction under climate change[J],2024,84. |
| APA | (2024).A bi-level optimization method for regional integrated energy system considering uncertainty and load prediction under climate change.JOURNAL OF BUILDING ENGINEERING,84. |
| MLA | "A bi-level optimization method for regional integrated energy system considering uncertainty and load prediction under climate change".JOURNAL OF BUILDING ENGINEERING 84(2024). |
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