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| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-024-46255-2 |
| Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2041-1723 |
| 起始页码 | 15 |
| 结束页码 | 1 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures. Global warming targets are considered inadequate to protect coral reefs, but this prognosis is based on models with similar approaches. This systematic review of studies that project coral responses to climate change found that divergent modelling methodologies had discrepancies in coral reef outcomes, and that those used for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other methods. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001185523200014 |
| 来源期刊 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/286026 |
| 作者单位 | King Abdullah University of Science & Technology; King Abdullah University of Science & Technology; King Abdullah University of Science & Technology |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change[J],2024,15(1). |
| APA | (2024).Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,15(1). |
| MLA | "Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 15.1(2024). |
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