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| DOI | 10.1029/2023EF003897 |
| A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau | |
| Li, Hu; Pan, Xiaoduo; Washakh, Rana Muhammad Ali; Nie, Xiaowei | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2328-4277 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest permafrost distribution zone at high-altitude in the mid-latitude region. Climate change has caused significant permafrost degradation on the TP, which has important impacts for the eco-hydrological processes. In this study, the frost number is utilized to calculate the frost number (F) based on the air freezing/thawing index obtained from the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets. A novel method is proposed to determine the frost number threshold (Ft) for diagnosing permafrost distribution. Then the simulated permafrost distribution maps are compared with the existing permafrost distribution map, employing the Kappa coefficient as the measure of classification accuracy to identify the optimal Ft. Finally, the permafrost distribution on the TP under different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios are diagnosed with the optimal Ft. Simulation results demonstrate that across all scenarios, the rates of permafrost degradation during the mid-future period (2040-2060) remain comparable to those observed in the baseline period (2000), ranging from 33% +/- 3% to 53% +/- 4%. Conversely, during the far-future (2080-2099), the permafrost degradation rates display significant variation across different scenarios, ranging from 37% +/- 4% to 96% +/- 3%. The profound impacts of permafrost degradation on the TP are reflected in decreasing trends in soil moisture and runoff, as well as a slower increasing trend in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) compared to other regions, indicating negative impacts on vegetation growth. The Tibetan Plateau, the highest plateau in the world and the largest high-altitude permafrost region, is experiencing permafrost degradation due to climate change, significantly impacting eco-hydrological processes in this region. In this study, we used the frost number model with air temperature to simulate the distribution of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under different scenarios. The results show that permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau is projected to degrade in the 21st century, especially under high-emission scenarios. The degradation of permafrost will likely reduce soil moisture and runoff. Additionally, vegetation growth in areas with permafrost degradation is expected to be slow. These findings are of great significance for understanding permafrost changes on the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on eco-hydrological processes. A new method using the frost number model with Kappa coefficient is proposed to diagnose permafrost distributionPermafrost on the Tibetan Plateau will experience the least degradation (33% +/- 3%) under SSP126, and the most (96% +/- 3%) under SSP585 in 2080-2099Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is anticipated to reduce soil moisture and runoff, adversely affecting vegetation growth |
| 关键词 | Tibetan PlateaupermafrostCMIP6frost number modelfuture scenarioclimate change |
| 英文关键词 | CLIMATE; MODEL; DEGRADATION; TEMPERATURE; PREDICTION; RIVER; HYDROLOGY; IMPACTS; REGION; CHINA |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001134673500001 |
| 来源期刊 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院青藏高原研究所 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/283847 |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Tibet University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Hu,Pan, Xiaoduo,Washakh, Rana Muhammad Ali,et al. A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2024,12(1). |
| APA | Li, Hu,Pan, Xiaoduo,Washakh, Rana Muhammad Ali,&Nie, Xiaowei.(2024).A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau.EARTHS FUTURE,12(1). |
| MLA | Li, Hu,et al."A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau".EARTHS FUTURE 12.1(2024). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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