气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seismic Monitoring and Geomorphic Impacts of the Catastrophic 2018 Baige Landslide Hazard Cascades in the Tibetan Plateau

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DOI	10.1029/2023JF007363 ; 10.1029/2023JF007363
	Seismic Monitoring and Geomorphic Impacts of the Catastrophic 2018 Baige Landslide Hazard Cascades in the Tibetan Plateau; Seismic Monitoring and Geomorphic Impacts of the Catastrophic 2018 Baige Landslide Hazard Cascades in the Tibetan Plateau
	Zhang, Zhen; Tan, Yen Joe; Walter, Fabian; He, Siming; Chmiel, Malgorzata; Su, Jinrong
发表日期	2024 ; 2024
ISSN	2169-9003 ; 2169-9003
EISSN	2169-9011 ; 2169-9011
卷号	129 期号:2
英文摘要	Surface hazards can form hazard cascades which expand their reach. However, our understanding of their complex dynamics and ability to mitigate their impacts remain limited. In 2018, two landslides dammed the Jinsha River in the Tibetan plateau and formed landslide-dammed lakes. Subsequent dam breaches prompted the evacuation of >120,000 people. An early warning system for floods using a regional seismic network has been proposed on the basis of catastrophic floods having been detected similar to 100 km away, with seismic energy proportional to discharge. Surprisingly, we find that this catastrophic outburst flood was undetectable beyond a few kilometers, with peak seismic energy preceding peak discharge. We propose that river channel stability also controls seismic energy generation and should be considered for accurate monitoring of catastrophic floods. In contrast, we find that the various processes during dam breach can be well-characterized seismically further away and provide warning similar to 60 min before discharge exceeds monsoon flood levels. We also show that numerical modeling of dam breaches which typically lacks in situ measurements can benefit from incorporating seismic data as constraints. Finally, we show that this event drastically increased sediment fluxes similar to 670 km downstream for years and may significantly reduce the capacity of hydropower plants. Our results reveal ways to improve early warning of catastrophic outburst floods and the need to consider surface hazards' long-term impact when managing infrastructure in mountainous regions. Plain Language Summary Mountainous regions are prone to surface hazards such as landslides and floods. However, our understanding of how these events evolve and interact is limited. In 2018, two landslides blocked a river in Tibet and created landslide-dammed lakes. Subsequently, the dam broke and the resulting outburst floods severely damaged downstream infrastructure and led to the evacuation of >120,000 people. In contrast to what previous studies suggest, we find that this catastrophic outburst flood was undetectable beyond a few kilometers, with peak seismic energy preceding peak discharge. We propose that river channel stability also controls seismic energy generation and should be considered for accurate monitoring of catastrophic floods. Conversely, the dam breakage could be detected seismically further away and provide warning similar to 60 min before discharge exceeded monsoon flood levels. Finally, we show that this event drastically increased sediment amounts downstream for years and may reduce the capacity of hydropower plants. Our results reveal ways to improve seismic monitoring and early warning of catastrophic floods and the need to consider the long-term impact of surface hazards when managing downstream infrastructure.; Surface hazards can form hazard cascades which expand their reach. However, our understanding of their complex dynamics and ability to mitigate their impacts remain limited. In 2018, two landslides dammed the Jinsha River in the Tibetan plateau and formed landslide-dammed lakes. Subsequent dam breaches prompted the evacuation of >120,000 people. An early warning system for floods using a regional seismic network has been proposed on the basis of catastrophic floods having been detected similar to 100 km away, with seismic energy proportional to discharge. Surprisingly, we find that this catastrophic outburst flood was undetectable beyond a few kilometers, with peak seismic energy preceding peak discharge. We propose that river channel stability also controls seismic energy generation and should be considered for accurate monitoring of catastrophic floods. In contrast, we find that the various processes during dam breach can be well-characterized seismically further away and provide warning similar to 60 min before discharge exceeds monsoon flood levels. We also show that numerical modeling of dam breaches which typically lacks in situ measurements can benefit from incorporating seismic data as constraints. Finally, we show that this event drastically increased sediment fluxes similar to 670 km downstream for years and may significantly reduce the capacity of hydropower plants. Our results reveal ways to improve early warning of catastrophic outburst floods and the need to consider surface hazards' long-term impact when managing infrastructure in mountainous regions. Plain Language Summary Mountainous regions are prone to surface hazards such as landslides and floods. However, our understanding of how these events evolve and interact is limited. In 2018, two landslides blocked a river in Tibet and created landslide-dammed lakes. Subsequently, the dam broke and the resulting outburst floods severely damaged downstream infrastructure and led to the evacuation of >120,000 people. In contrast to what previous studies suggest, we find that this catastrophic outburst flood was undetectable beyond a few kilometers, with peak seismic energy preceding peak discharge. We propose that river channel stability also controls seismic energy generation and should be considered for accurate monitoring of catastrophic floods. Conversely, the dam breakage could be detected seismically further away and provide warning similar to 60 min before discharge exceeded monsoon flood levels. Finally, we show that this event drastically increased sediment amounts downstream for years and may reduce the capacity of hydropower plants. Our results reveal ways to improve seismic monitoring and early warning of catastrophic floods and the need to consider the long-term impact of surface hazards when managing downstream infrastructure.
关键词	landslide-dammed lake landslide-dammed lake outburst flood outburst flood dam breach dam breach seismic monitoring seismic monitoring early warning early warning
英文关键词	LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS; 3 GORGES DAM; HYDROPOWER STATIONS; SEDIMENT FLUX; JINSHA RIVER; EROSION; FLOW; SATELLITE; DYNAMICS; BREACH; LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS; 3 GORGES DAM; HYDROPOWER STATIONS; SEDIMENT FLUX; JINSHA RIVER; EROSION; FLOW; SATELLITE; DYNAMICS; BREACH
WOS研究方向	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001155670600001 ; WOS:001155670600001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE ; JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/283774
作者单位	Chinese University of Hong Kong; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Mountain Hazards & Environment, CAS; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Cote d'Azur; Observatoire de la Cote d'Azur; China Earthquake Administration; Sichuan Earthquake Agency, CEA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Zhen,Tan, Yen Joe,Walter, Fabian,et al. Seismic Monitoring and Geomorphic Impacts of the Catastrophic 2018 Baige Landslide Hazard Cascades in the Tibetan Plateau, Seismic Monitoring and Geomorphic Impacts of the Catastrophic 2018 Baige Landslide Hazard Cascades in the Tibetan Plateau[J],2024, 2024,129, 129(2).
APA	Zhang, Zhen,Tan, Yen Joe,Walter, Fabian,He, Siming,Chmiel, Malgorzata,&Su, Jinrong.(2024).Seismic Monitoring and Geomorphic Impacts of the Catastrophic 2018 Baige Landslide Hazard Cascades in the Tibetan Plateau.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE,129(2).
MLA	Zhang, Zhen,et al."Seismic Monitoring and Geomorphic Impacts of the Catastrophic 2018 Baige Landslide Hazard Cascades in the Tibetan Plateau".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE 129.2(2024).