气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimation of grassland productivity in the period 1978-2021 and prediction under different climate scenarios in the period 2021-2100 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02449
	Estimation of grassland productivity in the period 1978-2021 and prediction under different climate scenarios in the period 2021-2100 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China
	Xu, Shibo; Zhang, Meiling; Su, Maoxin
发表日期	2023
EISSN	2351-9894
卷号	43
英文摘要	In the context of the future global warming trend, the complexity and diversity of climate change will have varying effects on grassland productivity. However, the response of grassland productivity to various climatic changes remains unknown. We investigated the impact of climate change on the grassland NPP of the Qinghai-Tibt Plateau(QTP), estimated grassland productivity over the QTP from 1978 to 2021, and predicted grassland NPP under the future climate scenarios SSP245 and SSP585 (SSP stands for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). According to the SSP245 (2021 -2100) scenario, global average temperatures will rise by 2.7 & DEG;C by the end of the century. However, under the SSP585 (2021 -2100) scenario, the rise will be 4.4 & DEG;C). The simulation results were analyzed using spatiotemporal statistics and compared with the base period (1978 -2021). The results revealed the following: (1) In both the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the grassland NPP of the QTP decreased from southeast to northwest, with higher NPP values primarily located in the east and south of the QTP and lower NPP values concentrated in the northwest. (2) Compared to the base period, the NPP of grassland in the QTP showed a downward trend under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, and the NPP values of SSP245 and SSP585 decreased by 13 % and 23 %, respectively, compared to the base period (1978 -2021). (3) Temperature and precipitation were negatively correlated with NPP in the SSP245 scenario, while under the SSP585 scenario, both temperature and precipitation positively correlated with NPP. The temperature correlated more strongly with NPP than precipitation in future climate scenarios. Therefore, we proposed strengthening grassland ecosystem protection measures in the QTP, adopting corresponding protection mechanisms based on climate change and vegetation growth environment in different regions, and implementing key protection measures in the northwest of the QTP to increase vegetation coverage and enhance man-made effects to offset the negative impact of climate change.
关键词	Future climate scenarios QTP DAYCENT model Spatiotemporal distribution NPP
英文关键词	NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001041667100001
来源期刊	GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/283575
作者单位	Gansu Agricultural University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Shibo,Zhang, Meiling,Su, Maoxin. Estimation of grassland productivity in the period 1978-2021 and prediction under different climate scenarios in the period 2021-2100 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China[J],2023,43.
APA	Xu, Shibo,Zhang, Meiling,&Su, Maoxin.(2023).Estimation of grassland productivity in the period 1978-2021 and prediction under different climate scenarios in the period 2021-2100 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China.GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION,43.
MLA	Xu, Shibo,et al."Estimation of grassland productivity in the period 1978-2021 and prediction under different climate scenarios in the period 2021-2100 in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China".GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION 43(2023).