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DOI	10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101313
	Projections of glacier peak water and its timing in the Sanjiangyuan on the Tibet Plateau
	Wang, Rongjun; Ding, Yongjian; Shangguan, Donghui; Cuo, Lan; Zhao, Qiudong; Qin, Jia; Li, Jing; Song, Miao
发表日期	2023
EISSN	2214-5818
卷号	45
英文摘要	Study region: The Sanjiangyuan, located on the Tibetan Plateau, is the headwater of the three large Asia Rivers- the Yangtze, Yellow and Lancang (upper Mekong) Rivers.Study focus: Mountain glacier melt runoff, an important buffer against drought, is enhancing with climate warming. Projection of glacier (especially small glaciers) runoff change is imperative for adapting to climate change and mitigating relevant risks. We aim to provide an up-to-date knowledge of the glacier area and runoff change for 2016-2099 in the Sanjiangyuan.New hydrological insights for the region: Projections based on CMIP6 archive show that 1) glacier area in the Sanjiangyuan for the four SSPs will shrink by 36 +/- 12 % (SSP1-2.6), 42 +/- 20 % (SSP2-4.5), 49 +/- 19 % (SSP3-7.0) and 61 +/- 15 % (SSP5-8.5) by the end of the 21st century. Small glacier dominated Lancang River basin is more sensitive to climate change than large glacier abundant Yangtze River basin and Yellow River basin. The Lancang River basin is pro-jected to experience the greatest relative glacier area shrinkage, 10 % of glacier area and 55 % of glacier number will disappear for SSP5-8.5; 2) annual glacier runoff in the Yangtze River and Yellow River will reach peak water around 2080 under SSP3-7.0, while the Lancang River is already in or near peak water timing for all SSPs. Higher emission scenario tends to yield later peak water timing due to the changes in snow melt.
关键词	The Sanjiangyuan Glacier area change Glacier runoff Future projections The Tibetan Plateau
英文关键词	MASS-BALANCE MODELS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; MOUNTAIN GLACIERS; INVENTORY DATA; RUNOFF; ICE; BASINS; CHINA; CMIP5
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000976096000001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/283445
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS; Gansu Agricultural University; Chinese Academy of Sciences
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Rongjun,Ding, Yongjian,Shangguan, Donghui,et al. Projections of glacier peak water and its timing in the Sanjiangyuan on the Tibet Plateau[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2023,45.
APA	Wang, Rongjun.,Ding, Yongjian.,Shangguan, Donghui.,Cuo, Lan.,Zhao, Qiudong.,...&Song, Miao.(2023).Projections of glacier peak water and its timing in the Sanjiangyuan on the Tibet Plateau.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,45.
MLA	Wang, Rongjun,et al."Projections of glacier peak water and its timing in the Sanjiangyuan on the Tibet Plateau".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 45(2023).