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DOI	10.1016/j.catena.2023.107671
	The evolution process and degradation model of permafrost in the Source Area of the Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since the Little Ice Age
	Cao, Wei; Cao, Yuanbing; Sheng, Yu; Chou, Yaling; Wu, Jichun; Peng, Erxing
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0341-8162
EISSN	1872-6887
卷号	236
英文摘要	Permafrost degradation is currently receiving as much attention as global warming. Permafrost evolution is a particularly slow process, making it impossible to examine the entire process by observation. Based on the heat conduction theory, in this study, a nonlinear numerical model for the entire process of permafrost evolution was developed with consideration of phase transition. The numerical simulation model was used to retrospectively analyse the evolution process and degradation pattern of permafrost in Tangchama beach-land in the Source Area of the Yellow River (SAYR) from 1400 to 2100; this analysis was performed using ice core inversion results obtained from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since the Little Ice Age and various future climate change scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The simulation results showed that: 1) since 1900, permafrost temperatures have substantially increased, exceeding the range of change between 1400 and 1900; under the RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, permafrost will degrade and disappear in the next 100 years, and the degradation rate will subsequently accelerate. 2) The permafrost table steadily goes downward at first, and the onset of fast permafrost degradation is signalled by the appearance of a residual thawed layer at a depth of 3-4 m. The permafrost layer then gradually thins out as the permafrost table rapidly descends and the permafrost base slowly ascends. The permafrost will fully deteriorate and vanish once the permafrost table and the permafrost base bounds overlap. 3) Due to permafrost degradation, the ground temperature curve can be divided into the following stages: uniform gradient stage, C-type stage, zero-gradient type stage and phase transition stage. The four stages of the permafrost life cycle are initial temperature warming, continuous temperature rising, residual thawed layer, and final permafrost disappearance.
关键词	Permafrost evolution process Permafrost degradation model Source Area of the Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Little Ice Age Climate Change
英文关键词	SOURCE REGION; CLIMATE; CHINA
WOS研究方向	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Soil Science ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001133867700001
来源期刊	CATENA
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/283070
作者单位	Hangzhou City University; Civil Aviation University of China; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Lanzhou University of Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cao, Wei,Cao, Yuanbing,Sheng, Yu,et al. The evolution process and degradation model of permafrost in the Source Area of the Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since the Little Ice Age[J],2024,236.
APA	Cao, Wei,Cao, Yuanbing,Sheng, Yu,Chou, Yaling,Wu, Jichun,&Peng, Erxing.(2024).The evolution process and degradation model of permafrost in the Source Area of the Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since the Little Ice Age.CATENA,236.
MLA	Cao, Wei,et al."The evolution process and degradation model of permafrost in the Source Area of the Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since the Little Ice Age".CATENA 236(2024).