气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11430-022-1077-y
	Projected land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets
	Xu, Runhong; Shi, Peijun; Gao, Miaoni; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Guojie; Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Lin, Qigen; Jiang, Tong
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1674-7313
EISSN	1869-1897
起始页码	1383
结束页码	1398
卷号	66 期号:6
英文摘要	Based on historical land use for eight periods from 1980 to 2020 and the projected land use under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5) from 2021 to 2100, we conducted a study on past and future land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). This work aims to reveal the land use changes during the carbon peak (2021-2040) and carbon neutrality (2051-2070) periods and at the end of the 21st century (2081-2100). The results show that: (1) in the historical period (1980-2020), the land use types in the QTP were grassland (1475x10(3) km(2), 58.2%), barren land (685x10(3) km(2), 27.0%), forest land (243x10(3) km(2), 9.6%), water (114x10(3) km(2), 4.5%), cropland (18.6x10(3) km(2), 0.7%) and urban land (0.3x10(3) km(2), 0.01%). (2) Relative to the baseline period (1995-2014), the area of grassland is projected to decrease by 0.7% (SSP4-6.0)-5.4% (SSP2-4.5) (0.5-3.9% of the total area of the QTP), 2.8% (SSP4-6.0)-12.5% (SSP3-7.0) (2.1-9.4% of the total area of the QTP) and 6.1% (SSP4-6.0)-21.7% (SSP4-3.4) (4.6-16.4% of the total area of the QTP) in the future three periods. In contrast, the forest land area is projected to increase, by approximately 2.5% (SSP4-6.0) to 30.1% (SSP3-7.0) (0.3-4.3% of the total area of the QTP), 9.2% (SSP4-6.0) to 56.5% (SSP2-4.5) (1.3-8.0% of the total area of the QTP), and 21.2% (SSP4-6.0) to 72.8% (SSP2-4.5) (3.0-10.2% of the total area of the QTP) in the future three periods, respectively. (3) Approximately 0.4 (SSP4-6.0) to 6.9% (SSP5-8.5), 0.9 (SSP4-6.0) to 2.7% (SSP4-3.4), and 0.04 (SSP5-8.5) to 3.5% (SSP1-1.9) of land is expected to convert from grassland to forest land in the future three periods, respectively. The shift from grassland to forest land area is likely to enhance the carbon sink potential of the QTP in the future period.
关键词	Land use change SSPs Carbon neutrality Carbon peak Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
英文关键词	SCENARIO SIMULATION; CLIMATE; CHINA; URBANIZATION; POPULATION; GRASSLAND; ECOSYSTEM; PATTERNS; POLICY
WOS研究方向	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000990080700001
来源期刊	SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282885
作者单位	Qinghai Normal University; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology; Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Runhong,Shi, Peijun,Gao, Miaoni,et al. Projected land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets[J],2023,66(6).
APA	Xu, Runhong.,Shi, Peijun.,Gao, Miaoni.,Wang, Yanjun.,Wang, Guojie.,...&Jiang, Tong.(2023).Projected land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,66(6).
MLA	Xu, Runhong,et al."Projected land use changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 66.6(2023).