气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction of the Periglacial Debris Flow in Southeast Tibet Based on Imbalanced Small Sample Data

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DOI	10.3390/w15020310
	Prediction of the Periglacial Debris Flow in Southeast Tibet Based on Imbalanced Small Sample Data
	Du, Jun; Zhang, Hong-ya; Hu, Kai-heng; Wang, Lin; Dong, Lin-yao
发表日期	2023
EISSN	2073-4441
卷号	15 期号:2
英文摘要	Using data sourced from 15 periglacial debris flow gullies in the Parlung Zangbo Basin of southeast Tibet, the importance of 26 potential indicators to the development of debris flows was analyzed quantitatively. Three machine learning approaches combined with the borderline resampling technique were introduced for predicting debris flow occurrences, and several scenarios were tested and compared. The results indicated that temperature and precipitation, as well as vegetation coverage, were closely related to the development of periglacial debris flow in the study area. Based on seven selected indicators, the Random Forest-based model, with its weighted recall rate and Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) greater than 0.76 and 0.77, respectively, performed the best in predicting debris flow events. Scenario tests indicated that the resampling was necessary to the improvement of model performance in the context of data scarcity. The new understandings obtained may enrich existing knowledge of the effects of main factors on periglacial debris flow development, and the modeling method could be promoted as a prediction scheme of regional precipitation-related debris flow for further research.
关键词	periglacial debris flow southeast Tibet small sample imbalanced data prediction model random forest
英文关键词	RANDOM FOREST; RAINFALL INTENSITY; MODEL; SVM; CLASSIFICATION; PERMAFROST; INITIATION; LANDSLIDE; PLATEAU; SMOTE
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000918899700001
来源期刊	WATER
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282759
作者单位	Ministry of Water Resources; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Mountain Hazards & Environment, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Du, Jun,Zhang, Hong-ya,Hu, Kai-heng,et al. Prediction of the Periglacial Debris Flow in Southeast Tibet Based on Imbalanced Small Sample Data[J],2023,15(2).
APA	Du, Jun,Zhang, Hong-ya,Hu, Kai-heng,Wang, Lin,&Dong, Lin-yao.(2023).Prediction of the Periglacial Debris Flow in Southeast Tibet Based on Imbalanced Small Sample Data.WATER,15(2).
MLA	Du, Jun,et al."Prediction of the Periglacial Debris Flow in Southeast Tibet Based on Imbalanced Small Sample Data".WATER 15.2(2023).