气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet

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DOI	10.3390/app13031797
	Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet
	Gao, Jiajia; Du, Jun; Yixi, Zhuoma
发表日期	2023
EISSN	2076-3417
卷号	13 期号:3
英文摘要	The southeast region of Tibet experiences frequent glacial lake outburst disasters, and disaster warning systems are thus crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation in the area. In this study, based on remote sensing images and historical data, 20 glacial lakes in southeast Tibet were selected as samples for risk analysis. A probability model of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in southeast Tibet was established using logistic regression for seven selected prediction indexes. By calculating the sensitivity and specificity of the model, the probability of identifying GLOFs was found to be 60%, with an identification degree of 86%. The under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve index was prominently larger than 0.5, indicating the applicability of logistic regression for predicting GLOFs in southeast Tibet. The probability equation of the model shows that the area of the glacial lake, the distance of the glacial lake from the glacier, the slope of the glacier, the slope of the glacier tongue, and the dam backwater slope have a great influence on the probability of GLOFs. The results can provide a reference for the local governments to prevent disasters and reduce the damage of GLOFs.
关键词	disaster warning glacial lake outburst logical regression southeast Tibet
英文关键词	MORAINE-DAMMED LAKES; CATASTROPHIC DRAINAGE
WOS研究方向	Chemistry, Multidisciplinary ; Engineering, Multidisciplinary ; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary ; Physics, Applied
WOS记录号	WOS:000933795900001
来源期刊	APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282552
作者单位	Tibet University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gao, Jiajia,Du, Jun,Yixi, Zhuoma. Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet[J],2023,13(3).
APA	Gao, Jiajia,Du, Jun,&Yixi, Zhuoma.(2023).Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet.APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL,13(3).
MLA	Gao, Jiajia,et al."Forewarning Model for Glacial Lake Outburst in Southeast Tibet".APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 13.3(2023).