气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01728-y
	Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere
	Park, In-Hong; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Wang, Guojian; Min, Seung-Ki; Lee, Sang-Ki
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	816
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:8
英文摘要	Climate models show large differences in simulating Atlantic Ocean circulation and associated carbon uptake. Here the authors use sea surface salinity as an emergent constraint of these processes to show that Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures warm more slowly than expected. Earth system models exhibit considerable intermodel spread in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity and its carbon uptake, resulting in great uncertainty in future climate. Here we show that present-day sea surface salinity (SSS) in the North Atlantic subpolar region modulates anthropogenic carbon uptake in the North Atlantic, and thus can be used to constrain future warming. Specifically, models that generate a present-day higher SSS in the North Atlantic subpolar region generate a greater uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the future, suppressing the greenhouse effect and resulting in slower warming, and vice versa in models with a present-day lower SSS. Emergent constraints based on the observed SSS greatly reduce the uncertainty of the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature warming and accumulative carbon uptake by about 30% and 53%, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5 scenario.
英文关键词	MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY; EMERGENT CONSTRAINTS; CARBON-DIOXIDE; OCEANIC SINK; CMIP5; PROJECTIONS; HEAT; CO2
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001027353800001
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282527
作者单位	Hanyang University; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Ocean University of China; Pohang University of Science & Technology (POSTECH); Yonsei University; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Park, In-Hong,Yeh, Sang-Wook,Cai, Wenju,et al. Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere[J],2023,13(8).
APA	Park, In-Hong,Yeh, Sang-Wook,Cai, Wenju,Wang, Guojian,Min, Seung-Ki,&Lee, Sang-Ki.(2023).Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere.Nature Climate Change,13(8).
MLA	Park, In-Hong,et al."Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere".Nature Climate Change 13.8(2023).