气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5
	Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
	Lamboll, Robin D.; Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.; Smith, Christopher J.; Kikstra, Jarmo S.; Byers, Edward; Rogelj, Joeri
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	1360
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:12
英文摘要	The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 degrees C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 degrees C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 degrees C the RCB is around 1,200 GtCO2. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero CO2. The remaining carbon budget (RCB) is a critical estimate of the carbon that can be emitted while staying within a particular temperature threshold. This study provides an updated assessment of the RCB using recent data and robustness checks to increase confidence in the estimate.
英文关键词	ZERO EMISSIONS; MODEL; COMMITMENT; PATHWAYS; TARGETS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001095085500001
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282460
作者单位	Imperial College London; University of Melbourne; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; University of Leeds; Imperial College London
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lamboll, Robin D.,Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.,Smith, Christopher J.,et al. Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets[J],2023,13(12).
APA	Lamboll, Robin D.,Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.,Smith, Christopher J.,Kikstra, Jarmo S.,Byers, Edward,&Rogelj, Joeri.(2023).Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets.Nature Climate Change,13(12).
MLA	Lamboll, Robin D.,et al."Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets".Nature Climate Change 13.12(2023).