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| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-023-01680-x |
| Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time | |
| Tol, Richard S. J. | |
| 发表日期 | 2023 |
| ISSN | 1758-678X |
| EISSN | 1758-6798 |
| 起始页码 | 532 |
| 结束页码 | + |
| 卷号 | 13期号:6 |
| 英文摘要 | Social cost of carbon is the cornerstone of optimal climate policy design and implementation, yet the large uncertainties remain since the first published work. This meta-analysis demonstrates that estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time, correcting for inflation and emission year. Estimates of the social cost of carbon are the yardstick for climate policy targets. However, there is great uncertainty and we do not know how estimates have evolved over time. Here I present a meta-analysis of published estimates showing that the social cost of carbon has increased as knowledge about climate change accumulates. Correcting for inflation and emission year and controlling for the discount rate, kernel density decomposition reveals a non-stationary distribution. In the past 10 years, estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased from US$9 per tCO(2) to US$40 per tCO(2) for a high discount rate and from US$122 per tCO(2) to US$525 per tCO(2) for a low discount rate. This trend is statistically significant if sensitivity analyses are discounted and paper quality weighted. Actual carbon prices are below its estimated value almost everywhere and should therefore go up. |
| 英文关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE; ECONOMICS; IMPACTS; KERNEL; POLICY |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000987116400001 |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Climate Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282452 |
| 作者单位 | University of Sussex; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Ifo Institut; Colorado School of Mines; Abu Dhabi University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tol, Richard S. J.. Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time[J],2023,13(6). |
| APA | Tol, Richard S. J..(2023).Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time.Nature Climate Change,13(6). |
| MLA | Tol, Richard S. J.."Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time".Nature Climate Change 13.6(2023). |
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