气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01603-w
	Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability
	Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	367
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:4
英文摘要	Adaptation to future sea-level rise is based on projections of continuously improving climate models. These projections are accompanied by inherent uncertainties, including those due to internal climate variability (ICV). The ICV arises from complex and unpredictable interactions within and between climate-system components, rendering its impact irreducible. Although neglecting this uncertainty can lead to an underestimation of future sea-level rise, its estimation and impacts have not been fully explored. Combining the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble experiments with power-law statistics, we show that, by 2100, if the ICV uncertainty reaches its upper limit, new sea-level-rise hotspots would appear in Southeast Asian megacities (Chennai, Kolkata, Yangon, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City and Manila), in western tropical Pacific Islands and the Western Indian Ocean. The better the ICV uncertainty is taken into account and correctly estimated, the more effective adaptation strategies can be elaborated with confidence and actions to follow. Sea-level rise (SLR) projections do not fully consider the influence of internal climate variability (ICV). Using large-ensemble projections, the authors show that including upper-limit ICV results in SLR hotspots in Southeast Asian megacities, and Western Indian and Pacific Oceans.
英文关键词	UNCERTAINTY; TRENDS; TIME; QUANTIFICATION; PROJECTIONS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000942724800003
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282437
作者单位	Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute of Ecology & Environment (INEE); National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Becker, M.,Karpytchev, M.,Hu, A.. Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability[J],2023,13(4).
APA	Becker, M.,Karpytchev, M.,&Hu, A..(2023).Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability.Nature Climate Change,13(4).
MLA	Becker, M.,et al."Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability".Nature Climate Change 13.4(2023).