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DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5
	The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise
	Hermans, Tim H. J.; Malagon-Santos, Victor; Katsman, Caroline A.; Jane, Robert A.; Rasmussen, D. J.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Garner, Gregory G.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Slangen, Aimee B. A.
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	359
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:4
英文摘要	Sea-level rise poses a considerable threat to many coastal areas as it increases the exceedance probability of local protection infrastructure. Here, the authors propose a method that shows the different timing at which the degree of local protection decreases due to sea-level rise. Sea-level rise amplifies the frequency of extreme sea levels by raising their baseline height. Amplifications are often projected for arbitrary future years and benchmark frequencies. Consequently, such projections do not indicate when flood risk thresholds may be crossed given the current degree of local coastal protection. To better support adaptation planning and comparative vulnerability analyses, we project the timing of the frequency amplification of extreme sea levels relative to estimated local flood protection standards, using sea-level rise projections of IPCC AR6 until 2150. Our central estimates indicate that those degrees of protection will be exceeded ten times as frequently within the next 30 years (the lead time that large adaptation measures may take) at 26% and 32% of the tide gauges considered, and annually at 4% and 8%, for a low- and high-emissions scenario, respectively. Adaptation planners may use our framework to assess the available lead time and useful lifetime of protective infrastructure.
英文关键词	ADAPTATION; PATHWAYS; DRIVERS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000955633200008
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282416
作者单位	Utrecht University; Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ); Delft University of Technology; Utrecht University; Delft University of Technology; State University System of Florida; University of Central Florida; Princeton University; Deltares; Utrecht University; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Princeton University; Princeton University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hermans, Tim H. J.,Malagon-Santos, Victor,Katsman, Caroline A.,et al. The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise[J],2023,13(4).
APA	Hermans, Tim H. J..,Malagon-Santos, Victor.,Katsman, Caroline A..,Jane, Robert A..,Rasmussen, D. J..,...&Slangen, Aimee B. A..(2023).The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise.Nature Climate Change,13(4).
MLA	Hermans, Tim H. J.,et al."The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise".Nature Climate Change 13.4(2023).