气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0
	A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges
	van de Ven, Dirk-Jan; Mittal, Shivika; Gambhir, Ajay; Lamboll, Robin D.; Doukas, Haris; Giarola, Sara; Hawkes, Adam; Koasidis, Konstantinos; Koberle, Alexandre C.; McJeon, Haewon; Perdana, Sigit; Peters, Glen P.; Rogelj, Joeri; Sognnaes, Ida; Vielle, Marc; Nikas, Alexandros
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	570
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:6
英文摘要	The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050-2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 degrees C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 degrees C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures. Although many countries have strengthened their emissions reduction pledges, their ability to limit the warming outcomes is still in question. A multimodel analysis demonstrates that these trajectories are in line with the 2 degrees C target but countries probably face feasibility challenges to achieve them.
英文关键词	PARIS AGREEMENT; CO2 EMISSIONS; WARMING WELL; ENERGY; PLEDGES; TRANSFORMATIONS; IMPLEMENTATION; SCENARIOS; MODEL
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000992145400001
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282407
作者单位	Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3); Imperial College London; Imperial College London; National Technical University of Athens; Imperial College London; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van de Ven, Dirk-Jan,Mittal, Shivika,Gambhir, Ajay,et al. A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges[J],2023,13(6).
APA	van de Ven, Dirk-Jan.,Mittal, Shivika.,Gambhir, Ajay.,Lamboll, Robin D..,Doukas, Haris.,...&Nikas, Alexandros.(2023).A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges.Nature Climate Change,13(6).
MLA	van de Ven, Dirk-Jan,et al."A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges".Nature Climate Change 13.6(2023).