气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01570-8
	Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum
	Bi, Stephen L. L.; Bauer, Nico; Jewell, Jessica
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
英文摘要	Coal phase-out is an irreplaceable part of the overall mitigation effort and bottom-up momentum has emerged to accelerate the process. With a new approach considering political feasibility, this research shows the potential spillover risks that may undermine the sectoral actions. The global phase-out of coal by mid-century is considered vital to the Paris Agreement to limit warming well-below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Since the inception of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) at COP23, political ambitions to accelerate the decline of coal have mounted to become the foremost priority at COP26. However, mitigation research lacks the tools to assess whether this bottom-up momentum can self-propagate toward Paris alignment. Here, we introduce dynamic policy evaluation (DPE), an evidence-based approach for emulating real-world policy-making. Given empirical relationships established between energy-economic developments and policy adoption, we endogenize national political decision-making into the integrated assessment model REMIND via multistage feedback loops with a probabilistic coalition accession model. DPE finds global PPCA participation <5% likely against a current policies backdrop and, counterintuitively, foresees that intracoalition leakage risks may severely compromise sector-specific, demand-side action. DPE further enables policies to interact endogenously, demonstrated here by the PPCA's path-dependence to COVID-19 recovery investments.
英文关键词	CLIMATE POLICY; RENEWABLE ENERGY; FOSSIL-FUELS; SCENARIOS; AGREEMENT; TRANSITIONS; PROJECTIONS; MITIGATION; EMISSIONS; DYNAMICS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000926394000006
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282328
作者单位	Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Technical University of Berlin; Chalmers University of Technology; University of Bergen; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bi, Stephen L. L.,Bauer, Nico,Jewell, Jessica. Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum[J],2023.
APA	Bi, Stephen L. L.,Bauer, Nico,&Jewell, Jessica.(2023).Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Bi, Stephen L. L.,et al."Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum".Nature Climate Change (2023).