气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected increase in global runoff dominated by land surface changes

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01659-8
	Projected increase in global runoff dominated by land surface changes
	Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Findell, Kirsten L.; Zhang, Yao
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	442
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:5
英文摘要	Global runoff is subject to multiple influences with high uncertainties in its projections. The authors show that global runoff is expected to increase mainly due to vegetation and soil moisture responses to rising CO2 and radiative forcing, rather than through direct effects of climate change. Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration affect continental runoff through radiative and physiological forcing. However, how climate and land surface changes, and their interactions in particular, regulate changes in global runoff remains largely unresolved. Here we develop an attribution framework that integrates top-down empirical and bottom-up modelling approaches to show that land surface changes account for 73-81% of projected global runoff increases. This arises from synergistic effects of physiological responses of vegetation to rising CO2 concentration and responses of land surface-for example, vegetation cover and soil moisture-to radiatively driven climate change. Although climate change strongly affects regional runoff changes, it plays a minor role (19-27%) in the global runoff increase, due to cancellation of positive and negative contributions from different regions. Our findings highlight the importance of accurate model representation of land surface processes for reliable projections of global runoff to support sustainable management of water resources.
英文关键词	WATER-BALANCE; CLIMATE; VEGETATION; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; DROUGHT; IMPACT; CO2
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000973656600003
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282322
作者单位	Beijing Normal University; Beijing Normal University; Griffith University; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Peking University; Peking University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou, Sha,Yu, Bofu,Lintner, Benjamin R.,et al. Projected increase in global runoff dominated by land surface changes[J],2023,13(5).
APA	Zhou, Sha,Yu, Bofu,Lintner, Benjamin R.,Findell, Kirsten L.,&Zhang, Yao.(2023).Projected increase in global runoff dominated by land surface changes.Nature Climate Change,13(5).
MLA	Zhou, Sha,et al."Projected increase in global runoff dominated by land surface changes".Nature Climate Change 13.5(2023).