气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01568-2
	Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C
	Jenkins, Stuart; Smith, Chris; Allen, Myles; Grainger, Roy
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	127
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:2
英文摘要	On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) eruption injected 146 MtH(2)O and 0.42 MtSO(2) into the stratosphere. This large water vapour perturbation means that HTHH will probably increase the net radiative forcing, unusual for a large volcanic eruption, increasing the chance of the global surface temperature anomaly temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees C over the coming decade. Here we estimate the radiative response to the HTHH eruption and derive the increased risk that the global mean surface temperature anomaly shortly exceeds 1.5 degrees C following the eruption. We show that HTHH has a tangible impact of the chance of imminent 1.5 degrees C exceedance (increasing the chance of at least one of the next 5 years exceeding 1.5 degrees C by 7%), but the level of climate policy ambition, particularly the mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants, dominates the 1.5 degrees C exceedance outlook over decadal timescales.
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000913474800001
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282317
作者单位	University of Oxford; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); University of Leeds; University of Oxford
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jenkins, Stuart,Smith, Chris,Allen, Myles,et al. Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C[J],2023,13(2).
APA	Jenkins, Stuart,Smith, Chris,Allen, Myles,&Grainger, Roy.(2023).Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C.Nature Climate Change,13(2).
MLA	Jenkins, Stuart,et al."Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C".Nature Climate Change 13.2(2023).