气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01636-1
	New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature
	van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar; Bosello, Francesco; Dasgupta, Shouro; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Hof, Andries; Leimbach, Marian; Parrado, Ramiro; Piontek, Franziska; Standardi, Gabriele; van Vuuren, Detlef
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	434
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:5
英文摘要	Cost-benefit analysis of climate change depends heavily on the damage function used, and it is difficult to get credible information. Multimodel comparison with newly developed bottom-up damage functions indicates the optimal temperature could be much lower than previously estimated. Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10% to 12% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 degrees C temperature change, and about 2% in a well-below 2 degrees C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 degrees C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points.
英文关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE; CARBON EMISSIONS; SOCIAL COST; MODEL; UNCERTAINTY; TARGETS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000955633200011
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282283
作者单位	Utrecht University; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar,Bosello, Francesco,Dasgupta, Shouro,et al. New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature[J],2023,13(5).
APA	van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar.,Bosello, Francesco.,Dasgupta, Shouro.,Drouet, Laurent.,Emmerling, Johannes.,...&van Vuuren, Detlef.(2023).New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature.Nature Climate Change,13(5).
MLA	van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar,et al."New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature".Nature Climate Change 13.5(2023).