气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Macroclimate data overestimate range shifts of plants in response to climate change

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01650-3
	Macroclimate data overestimate range shifts of plants in response to climate change
	Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Early, Regan
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	484
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:5
英文摘要	Current conservation policy has been shaped by the expectation that, for many species, places with suitable climate will lie outside their current range, thus leading to predictions of numerous extinctions. Here we show that the magnitude of range shifts is often overestimated as climate data used do not reflect the microclimatic conditions that many organisms experience. We model the historic (1977-1995) distributions of 244 heathland and grassland plant taxa using both macro- and microclimate data and project these distributions to present day (2003-2021). Whereas macroclimate models predicted major range shifts (median 14 km shift), microclimate models predicted localized shifts, generally of less than 1 km, into favourable microclimates that more closely match observed patterns of establishment and extirpation. Thus, improving protection of refugial populations within species' existing geographic range may, for species living in environments exposed to sunlight, be more effective than assisted translocations and overhaul of protected area networks. The authors model historic and current distributions of grassland and heathland plants using both macro- and microclimate data. While macroclimate models predict the need for major range shifts (14 km median), microclimate models predict much smaller shifts that more closely match observed patterns.
英文关键词	BIODIVERSITY; RESOLUTION; IMPACTS; MODEL; DISTRIBUTIONS; CONSERVATION; MANAGEMENT
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000975194500002
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282245
作者单位	University of Exeter; University of Exeter
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Maclean, Ilya M. D.,Early, Regan. Macroclimate data overestimate range shifts of plants in response to climate change[J],2023,13(5).
APA	Maclean, Ilya M. D.,&Early, Regan.(2023).Macroclimate data overestimate range shifts of plants in response to climate change.Nature Climate Change,13(5).
MLA	Maclean, Ilya M. D.,et al."Macroclimate data overestimate range shifts of plants in response to climate change".Nature Climate Change 13.5(2023).