气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Surprising stability of recent global carbon cycling enables improved fossil fuel emission verification

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01761-x
	Surprising stability of recent global carbon cycling enables improved fossil fuel emission verification
	Birner, Benjamin; Roedenbeck, Christian; Dohner, Julia L.; Schwartzman, Armin; Keeling, Ralph F.
发表日期	2023
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	961
结束页码	+
卷号	13 期号:9
英文摘要	Verification of reported fossil fuel emissions is critical for tracking the progress of the Paris Agreement. Here, a simple model suggests the stability of the sensitivity of net carbon exchange to climate and carbon dioxide forcing and validates reported global emissions with improved accuracy. The interannual to decadal variability in natural carbon sinks limits the explanation of recent changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we account for interannual and decadal variability using a simple quasi-mechanistic model of the net land carbon exchange with terms scaling with atmospheric CO2 and a weighted spatial average of temperature anomalies. This approach reduces the unexplained residual in Earth's carbon cycle budget from & PLUSMN;0.76 GtC per year obtained using process models to & PLUSMN;0.50 GtC per year, with the largest improvements on decadal timescales despite assuming constant dynamics. Our findings reveal remarkable stability of the carbon cycle and allow verification of reported global emissions to within 4.4% (95% confidence level) over the five-year stocktake cycle of the Paris Agreement-half the uncertainty reported previously.
英文关键词	CO2 GROWTH-RATE; ATMOSPHERIC CO2; SOIL-MOISTURE; EL-NINO; LAND; SENSITIVITY; DIOXIDE; VARIABILITY; INCREASE; DRIVEN
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001049926500001
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/282240
作者单位	University of California System; University of California San Diego; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Max Planck Society; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California San Diego
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Birner, Benjamin,Roedenbeck, Christian,Dohner, Julia L.,et al. Surprising stability of recent global carbon cycling enables improved fossil fuel emission verification[J],2023,13(9).
APA	Birner, Benjamin,Roedenbeck, Christian,Dohner, Julia L.,Schwartzman, Armin,&Keeling, Ralph F..(2023).Surprising stability of recent global carbon cycling enables improved fossil fuel emission verification.Nature Climate Change,13(9).
MLA	Birner, Benjamin,et al."Surprising stability of recent global carbon cycling enables improved fossil fuel emission verification".Nature Climate Change 13.9(2023).