气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Copula-based multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) and length, severity, and frequency of hydrological drought in the Upper Sakarya Basin, Turkey

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-023-05830-4
	Copula-based multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) and length, severity, and frequency of hydrological drought in the Upper Sakarya Basin, Turkey
	Varol, Tugrul; Atesoglu, Ayhan; Ozel, Halil Baris; Cetin, Mehmet
发表日期	2023
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
英文摘要	Drought, one of the main factors threatening social life today, is examined and analyzed by its types such as meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. Thus, decision-makers need advanced methods in monitoring and assessing the drought, which is important for future plans. Multivariate drought indices were developed to allow determining the actual and real level of drought by reducing the deficiencies of current methods. In a region having three different characteristics (BSk: semiarid cold, Csa: dry summer-hot summer, and H: unclassified highland), MSDI was modeled by utilizing the data from Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Surface Runoff Index (SRI). For the period between 2003 and 2021, the precipitation, evapotranspiration, and surface runoff data were obtained from SPEI Global Drought Monitor and ERA5 databases. Gaussian function was used in establishing the copula-based joint distribution functions according to AIC, BIC, and max-likelihood assessment criteria. The R packages offering a wide range of use for drought modeling and assessment based on the multivariate drought indices were used. The calculations performed for 4 different time scales as MSDI 1-3-6-12 (soil moisture, surface hydrology, and agricultural and hydrological perspectives) showed acceptable performance in multivariate estimation of the drought. It was determined that, for all four time scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 months), MSDI values obtained from modeling were more similar to SPEI values in comparison with SRI values. Considering all the data, it was determined that the years 2007 and 2016 were found to be the driest years for the basin on the 6-month scale, whereas the years 2016 and 2021 were the driest years on the 12-month scale.
英文关键词	Drought modeling; Copula; Multivariate standardized drought index; Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration Index; Standardized runoff Index
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000920831500001
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281569
作者单位	Bartin University; Ondokuz Mayis University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Varol, Tugrul,Atesoglu, Ayhan,Ozel, Halil Baris,et al. Copula-based multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) and length, severity, and frequency of hydrological drought in the Upper Sakarya Basin, Turkey[J],2023.
APA	Varol, Tugrul,Atesoglu, Ayhan,Ozel, Halil Baris,&Cetin, Mehmet.(2023).Copula-based multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) and length, severity, and frequency of hydrological drought in the Upper Sakarya Basin, Turkey.NATURAL HAZARDS.
MLA	Varol, Tugrul,et al."Copula-based multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) and length, severity, and frequency of hydrological drought in the Upper Sakarya Basin, Turkey".NATURAL HAZARDS (2023).