气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Decomposition and prediction of China's carbon emission intensity towards carbon neutrality: From perspectives of national, regional and sectoral level

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153839
	Decomposition and prediction of China's carbon emission intensity towards carbon neutrality: From perspectives of national, regional and sectoral level
	Chen, Hao; Qi, Shaozhou; Tan, Xiujie
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
卷号	825
英文摘要	China has actively participated in global climate governance and put forward its ambitious carbon neutrality target. The formulation of scientific plans has become the primary concern of the policy makers, especially for the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans (FYP) which are important periods to secure the neutrality pledge and transform the whole economy. Since the carbon emission intensity play a key role in achieving carbon neutrality, it is necessary to summarize and explore the evolution trend of carbon emission intensity as well as its driving factors. Therefore, an integrated decomposition framework is developed to study the carbon emission intensity in the past three FYPs from the national, regional and industrial levels. Furthermore, towards the carbon neutrality target, moderate scenario and advanced scenario are designed to predict the future evolution trend of the carbon emission intensity and driving factors in the 14th and 15th FYPs (2021-2030). The main results are as follows: (1) During the three FYPs, factor substitution is the main force contributing to the decreased carbon emission intensity, but this effect gradually decreased. This indicates that it is an inevitable trend to further promote internal optimization and reform of energy system. (2) The change of energy structure exerts a positive effect on the carbon emission intensity decline, but it is not significant, especially in the industrial sector. (3) With the rich factor endowment, central and eastern regions can reduce carbon emission intensity through factor substitution and industrial structure transformation, while the western region is not. (4) In the future, the role of industrial structure optimization and technology progress will be gradually significant. Finally, our findings provide practical guidance on achieving carbon emission intensity reduction and enlightenments on policymaking.
英文关键词	Carbon emission intensity; Index decomposition analysis; Production-theoretical decomposition analysis; Scenario analysis
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) ; Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
WOS记录号	WOS:000764892700002
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281563
作者单位	Wuhan University; Wuhan University; Hubei University of Economics; Wuhan University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Hao,Qi, Shaozhou,Tan, Xiujie. Decomposition and prediction of China's carbon emission intensity towards carbon neutrality: From perspectives of national, regional and sectoral level[J],2022,825.
APA	Chen, Hao,Qi, Shaozhou,&Tan, Xiujie.(2022).Decomposition and prediction of China's carbon emission intensity towards carbon neutrality: From perspectives of national, regional and sectoral level.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,825.
MLA	Chen, Hao,et al."Decomposition and prediction of China's carbon emission intensity towards carbon neutrality: From perspectives of national, regional and sectoral level".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 825(2022).