气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Divergence in Climate Model Projections of Future Arctic Atlantification

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0349.1
	Divergence in Climate Model Projections of Future Arctic Atlantification
	Muilwijk, Morven; Nummelin, Aleksi; Heuze, Celine; Polyakov, Igor, V; Zanowski, Hannah; Smedsrud, Lars H.
发表日期	2023
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	1727
结束页码	1748
卷号	36 期号:6
英文摘要	The Arctic Ocean is strongly stratified by salinity in the uppermost layers. This stratification is a key attri-bute of the region as it acts as an effective barrier for the vertical exchanges of Atlantic Water heat, nutrients, and CO2 be-tween intermediate depths and the surface of the Eurasian and Amerasian basins (EB and AB, respectively). Observations show that from 1970 to 2017, the stratification in the AB has strengthened, whereas, in parts of the EB, the stratification has weakened. The strengthening in the AB is linked to freshening and deepening of the halocline. In the EB, the weak-ened stratification is associated with salinification and shoaling of the halocline (Atlantification). Simulations from a suite of CMIP6 models project that, under a strong greenhouse gas forcing scenario (ssp585), the overall surface freshening and warming continue in both basins, but there is a divergence in hydrographic trends in certain regions. Within the AB, there is agreement among the models that the upper layers will become more stratified. However, within the EB, models diverge regarding future stratification. This is due to different balances between trends at the surface and trends at depth, related to Fram Strait fluxes. The divergence affects projections of the future state of Arctic sea ice, as models with the strongest Atlantification project the strongest decline in sea ice volume in the EB. From these simulations, one could conclude that Atlantification will not spread eastward into the AB; however, models must be improved to simulate changes in a more in-tricately stratified EB correctly.
英文关键词	Arctic; Freshwater; Surface layer; Ocean models; Coupled models; Mixing
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号	WOS:000936356400001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281534
作者单位	Norwegian Polar Institute; University of Bergen; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research; Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE); University of Gothenburg; University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Fairbanks; University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Fairbanks; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Muilwijk, Morven,Nummelin, Aleksi,Heuze, Celine,et al. Divergence in Climate Model Projections of Future Arctic Atlantification[J],2023,36(6).
APA	Muilwijk, Morven,Nummelin, Aleksi,Heuze, Celine,Polyakov, Igor, V,Zanowski, Hannah,&Smedsrud, Lars H..(2023).Divergence in Climate Model Projections of Future Arctic Atlantification.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,36(6).
MLA	Muilwijk, Morven,et al."Divergence in Climate Model Projections of Future Arctic Atlantification".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 36.6(2023).