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DOI10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120673
Planning China's non-deterministic energy system (2021-2060) to achieve carbon neutrality
Ma, Y.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.
发表日期2023
ISSN0306-2619
EISSN1872-9118
卷号334
英文摘要Long-term energy system planning at the national level is critical for achieving carbon neutrality. However, the multiple uncertainties inherent in energy system pose enormous challenges to the planning process. In this study, a flexible chance-constrained programming (FCP) method is developed to tackle uncertainties presented as random probability distribution and fuzzy information, which can also balance the trade-off between system objective and constraint-violation risk. Then, considering carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) tech-nology and forest carbon sinks, a China's non-deterministic energy planning model is formulated to achieve carbon neutrality under the minimization of system cost. Results under 72 scenarios associated with different CCUS installation rates and risk-response attitudes disclose that (i) in order to realize the national carbon neutrality goal, China should gradually reduce the use of coal and oil and increase the use of renewable energy (accounting for [75.3, 78.6]% by 2060); (ii) China should vigorously increase wind power and photovoltaic power, phase down coal-fired power installed capacity but retain 144.0 GW by 2060 to ensure stable electricity supply; (iii) China should reach peak CO2 emissions for its energy system by 2025 to gain time and release the urgency for carbon neutrality; (iv) the synergistic effect of carbon neutrality is also beneficial to the abatement of pollutants emissions and the improvement of air quality. The results can provide policy recommendations for the planning of China's carbon neutral energy system during 2021-2060.
英文关键词Carbon neutrality; CCUS; Decision making; Energy system; Multiple uncertainties; Optimization
语种英语
WOS研究方向Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical
WOS类目Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
WOS记录号WOS:000923934500001
来源期刊APPLIED ENERGY
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281520
作者单位Beijing Normal University; University of Regina
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GB/T 7714
Ma, Y.,Li, Y. P.,Huang, G. H.. Planning China's non-deterministic energy system (2021-2060) to achieve carbon neutrality[J],2023,334.
APA Ma, Y.,Li, Y. P.,&Huang, G. H..(2023).Planning China's non-deterministic energy system (2021-2060) to achieve carbon neutrality.APPLIED ENERGY,334.
MLA Ma, Y.,et al."Planning China's non-deterministic energy system (2021-2060) to achieve carbon neutrality".APPLIED ENERGY 334(2023).
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