Climate Change Data Portal
DOI | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120673 |
Planning China's non-deterministic energy system (2021-2060) to achieve carbon neutrality | |
Ma, Y.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H. | |
发表日期 | 2023 |
ISSN | 0306-2619 |
EISSN | 1872-9118 |
卷号 | 334 |
英文摘要 | Long-term energy system planning at the national level is critical for achieving carbon neutrality. However, the multiple uncertainties inherent in energy system pose enormous challenges to the planning process. In this study, a flexible chance-constrained programming (FCP) method is developed to tackle uncertainties presented as random probability distribution and fuzzy information, which can also balance the trade-off between system objective and constraint-violation risk. Then, considering carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) tech-nology and forest carbon sinks, a China's non-deterministic energy planning model is formulated to achieve carbon neutrality under the minimization of system cost. Results under 72 scenarios associated with different CCUS installation rates and risk-response attitudes disclose that (i) in order to realize the national carbon neutrality goal, China should gradually reduce the use of coal and oil and increase the use of renewable energy (accounting for [75.3, 78.6]% by 2060); (ii) China should vigorously increase wind power and photovoltaic power, phase down coal-fired power installed capacity but retain 144.0 GW by 2060 to ensure stable electricity supply; (iii) China should reach peak CO2 emissions for its energy system by 2025 to gain time and release the urgency for carbon neutrality; (iv) the synergistic effect of carbon neutrality is also beneficial to the abatement of pollutants emissions and the improvement of air quality. The results can provide policy recommendations for the planning of China's carbon neutral energy system during 2021-2060. |
英文关键词 | Carbon neutrality; CCUS; Decision making; Energy system; Multiple uncertainties; Optimization |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS研究方向 | Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical |
WOS类目 | Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000923934500001 |
来源期刊 | APPLIED ENERGY
![]() |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281520 |
作者单位 | Beijing Normal University; University of Regina |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ma, Y.,Li, Y. P.,Huang, G. H.. Planning China's non-deterministic energy system (2021-2060) to achieve carbon neutrality[J],2023,334. |
APA | Ma, Y.,Li, Y. P.,&Huang, G. H..(2023).Planning China's non-deterministic energy system (2021-2060) to achieve carbon neutrality.APPLIED ENERGY,334. |
MLA | Ma, Y.,et al."Planning China's non-deterministic energy system (2021-2060) to achieve carbon neutrality".APPLIED ENERGY 334(2023). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。