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| DOI | 10.1016/j.gr.2021.12.010 |
| The dynamics of early-stage transmission of COVID-19: A novel quantification of the role of global temperature | |
| Liu, Lu | |
| 发表日期 | 2023 |
| ISSN | 1342-937X |
| EISSN | 1878-0571 |
| 起始页码 | 55 |
| 结束页码 | 68 |
| 卷号 | 114 |
| 英文摘要 | The global outbreak of COVID-19 has emerged as one of the most devastating and challenging threats to humanity. As many frontline workers are fighting against this disease, researchers are struggling to obtain a better understanding of the pathways and challenges of this pandemic. This paper evaluates the concept that the transmission of COVID-19 is intrinsically linked to temperature. Some complex non-linear functional forms, such as the cubic function, are introduced to the empirical models to understand the interaction between temperature and the growth in the number of infected cases. An accurate quantitative interaction between temperature and the confirmed COVID-19 cases is obtained as log(Y) = -0.000146(temp_H)3 + 0.007410(temp_H)2 -0.063332 temp_H + 7.793842, where Y is the periodic growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases, and temp_H is the maximum daily temperature. This equation alone may be the first confirmed way to measure the quantitative interaction between temperature and human transmission of COVID-19. In addition, four important regions are identified in terms of max-imum daily temperature (in Celsius) to understand the dynamics in the transmission of COVID-19 related to temperature. First, the transmission decreases within the range of -50 degrees C to 5.02 degrees C. Second, the trans-mission accelerates in the range of 5.02 degrees C to 16.92 degrees C. Essentially, this is the temperature range for an outbreak. Third, the transmission increases more slowly in the range of 16.92 degrees C to 28.82 degrees C. Within this range, the number of infections continues to grow, but at a slower pace. Finally, the transmission decreases in the range of 28.82 degrees C to 50 degrees C. Thus, according to this hypothesis, the threshold of 16.92 degrees C is the most critical, as the point at which the infection rate is the greatest. This result sheds light on the mechanism in the cyclicity of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. The implications of these results on policy issues are also discussed concerning a possible cyclical fluctuation pattern between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.(c) 2022 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change; COVID-19; Dynamics of transmission; Outbreak; Temperature |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| WOS类目 | Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000924683300001 |
| 来源期刊 | GONDWANA RESEARCH
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/281367 |
| 作者单位 | Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Lu. The dynamics of early-stage transmission of COVID-19: A novel quantification of the role of global temperature[J],2023,114. |
| APA | Liu, Lu.(2023).The dynamics of early-stage transmission of COVID-19: A novel quantification of the role of global temperature.GONDWANA RESEARCH,114. |
| MLA | Liu, Lu."The dynamics of early-stage transmission of COVID-19: A novel quantification of the role of global temperature".GONDWANA RESEARCH 114(2023). |
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